Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 241757
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1257 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO OUR EAST AND WEST...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART...WE REMAIN SUNNY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE ONLY CHANGES FOR THE AFTERNOON WAS TO
BACK OFF ON SKY COVER. LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BASED ON OUR EASTERLY FETCH. 925MB INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY FROM EAST TO WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THUS INCREASED
CLOUDS TONIGHT AND KEPT CLOUDS IN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS PERIOD. DID LOWER SKY COVER A LITTLE
IN THE NORTHWEST. WE ALSO DROPPED THE SMALL POPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CWA. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HOLDING THE PRECIP
FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE POPULATED LATEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

INHERITED FORECAST ON TRACK. DRY THIS MORNING WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY MOST LOCATIONS. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA
PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS (HRRR/RAP/WRF)
HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEEK ISENTROPIC LIFT.

OTHERWISE TODAY LOOKS RATHER PLEASANT WITH A COOL EAST NORTHEAST
WIND...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS FAR
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGH ON FRIDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
MAINLY IMPACT WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER WHICH MOVES SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD SAT
NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH
WILL TRIGGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN ND. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION EXITING
OFF TO THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING.

NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL BE TRIGGERED BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH
STALLS FROM SATURDAY WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS
WEST AND CENTRAL ND. TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL COULD RANGE
BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH IN THE WEST TO AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MONDAY NIGHT AND ONWARDS WILL SEE MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED WAVES AS THEY TRY TO
RIDE OVER THE RIDGE ALOFT. 00Z ECMWF DEPICTS A FLATTER RIDGE AND
DOES INDEED ALLOW THESE WAVES TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MID-WEEK AND TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z
GFS DEPICTS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND MAINLY DEFLECTS ALL ENERGY
TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING WITH AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...COMBINED WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECTING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SLOWED THINGS DOWN A LITTLE FROM
CURRENT FORECAST MODELS...BUT BASICALLY BROUGHT IN IFR CEILINGS TO
KJMS AROUND 08Z AND SPREAD THIS WEST INTO KMOT-KBIS AND KDIK 10-13
UTC. FOR NOW KEPT THE IFR OUT OF KISN...BUT DID BRING IN MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND 15 UTC SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT
HAVE TRENDED TO IFR CEILINGS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH





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