Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 252336
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAIN CHANGE FOR EARLY
EVENING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE AREA
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE AVIATION
CONCERNS PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED
OVER WASHINGTON STATE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW...OVER SOUTHWEST
WYOMING.

AS THE NORTHERN WAVE LIFTS INTO CANADA...A VORT LOBE WILL HELP
PROPAGATE THE NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN
SETTING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY...INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF CLOUDLESS SKIES OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO
EASTERN WYOMING EARLIER TODAY...ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE GETTING CLOSE TO THE
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN PUSHING THE SHOWERS INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GLOBAL
GFS/ECMWF MODELS AND THE NAM12/MESOSCALE MODELS IN HOW THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EVOLVES TONIGHT. THE GFS/EC KEEP
THIS ENERGY SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM VORT LOBE WHICH
RESULTS IN SHOWERS PUSHING FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO NEAR BISMARCK...AND SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST MAKE IT TO
AROUND MINOT...MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN LOBE. THE
NAM/MESO MODELS TRY TO MELD THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM LOBE AND THUS THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS FARTHER
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AREA...WHILE THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AFTER THIS EVENING...MAKING IT NO FARTHER EAST THAN
BOTTINEAU AND HETTINGER UP THROUGH DICKINSON. FOR NOW WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARD THE GLOBAL SOLUTION WHICH WILL BRING AT LEAST A THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO THE BISMARCK AREA AROUND 12 UTC SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POPS BACK
BEHIND THE LOBE THAT LIFTS INTO CANADA. SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY DRY
OUT ALONG THEIR EASTERN FLANK DURING THE DAY. THUS ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE BISMARCK AND MINOT AREA WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...MAKING FOR A COOL AND DAMP DAY THERE. HAVE
LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ONE SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT NORTH ATOP A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT FROM SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL. A 700MB-500MB BUBBLE RIDGE WILL RESIDE IN EASTERN
NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE SUPPRESSED MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY EXITS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY REBOUNDING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WINDS VEER FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE TREND IS FOR
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT WILL SEE HOW THINGS HOLD TOGETHER AS WE GET CLOSER.
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING NICELY TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY...THEN 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
WEST WITH THE CLEARING SKY AS MENTIONED ABOVE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE
COOLEST MORNING LOWS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WITH UPPER 30S.
THEREAFTER EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...WITH LCL IFR CIGS OVER FAR WESTERN
ND...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS SHRA
PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE KJMS WHERE CIGS
MAY RISE TO VFR LEVELS THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS






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