Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 202105
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HIGHLIGHTED BY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

OTHERWISE...FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CUMULUS FIELDS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE DRY AXIS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO FADE WITH SUNSET. THEREAFTER...A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE 12
UTC AND INCOMING 18 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO RESULT FROM
NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FALLING AS LIGHT
SNOW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE LONG TERM APPEARS RATHER COOL AND QUIET.

THROUGH MIDWEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

BY THURSDAY MODELS ARE DEPICTING A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE LONG TERM MODELS ENTERING THIS WEEKEND. IT DOES APPEAR THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
TIMING...LOCATION AND AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 450 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE KJMS TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25-30 KTS WEST AND OVER 35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...

DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
019>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...AYD



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