Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 250830
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A BENIGN...LOW IMPACT WEATHER REGIME WILL PERSIST DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MOST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NAM/RAP...START TO ERODE THE
CLOUD DECK OVER NW MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SPREADING WESTWARD TONIGHT. NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR THOUGH. ASSUMING CLOUDS PERSIST MUCH OF THE
DAY...TEMPS MAY RISE ONLY MODESTLY...EVEN WITH THE RELATIVELY MILD
START TO THE DAY. FOR THAT REASON...KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. TONIGHT TEMPS LIKELY WILL BE COOLEST OVER PARTS OF NW
MN...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE
CLEAR...WHILE MORE CLOUDS FARTHER WEST MAY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT
HIGHER.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
ND NEAR A SFC BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN TO THE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
DO NOT WARM CONSIDERABLY FROM TODAY...MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH THE
DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S IN MANY
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEEK INTO THE N PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST. THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EAST DURING THIS TIME AIDED BY THE UPPER WAVE. THERE ARE
STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES...WITH THE
NAM/GFS SLOWER THAN THE GEM/ECMWF. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND AN INITIALLY DRY AIR MASS...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN. FOR NOW KEPT POPS HIGHEST OVER THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS EASTWARD INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MAGNIFIED. HIGHS ON
MONDAY COULD BE WELL INTO THE 60S...BUT THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
AND SHOWERS WILL IMPACT TEMPS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...00Z MODELS INDICATE A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND GEM ARE
STRONGER WITH ANY UPPER WAVES RIDING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT WEAKER ALLOWING UPPER WAVES TO RIDE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER...AND
LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE VFR RANGE FROM
WEST TO EAST BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON OR SAT EVENING. MODELS MAY BE
TOO FAST IN MOVING CLOUDS OUT SO HAVE STAYED ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...TG/JM
AVIATION...DK







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.