Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 010448
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1148 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

COLD FRONT ENTERING ERN FCST AREA NEAR A WARROAD TO FOSSTON TO
NEAR WAHPETON LINE. AREA OF SHOWERS JUST WEST OF FRONT MOVIGN EAST
AS WELL. ONE BIT HEAVIER BATCH LIFTED INTO MANITOBA AND A BIT
HEAVIER RAIN AREA (MAYBE UP TO 0.25) SOUTHWEST OF FARGO. OTHERWISE
RAINFALL IS LIGHT (AROUND 0.05 OR SO). SKIES CLEAR QUICKYL BEHIND
SHOWER BAND. QUESTION IS FOG IN CLEARING LATER TONIGHT. LATEST
HRRR HINTS AS SOME LOWER VSBYS IN NRN VALLEY OVERNGITH AND LAST
OBS FROM LANGDON ND (KD55) SHOWS SOME BR ALREADY. SO WILL THROW IN
SOME PATCHY FOG TO MAINLY NRN VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WAS ACROSS THE STATES IN A ZONAL FLOW. UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA FRI THROUGH SUN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WAS GENERALLY IN THE
700 HPA THETA-E RIDGE OR THE GRADIENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RISE
TO NEAR AN INCH OVERNIGHT OR EAST OF THE FRONT. FRONT/WIND SHIFT
WILL MOVE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN WASH OUT. RETURN FLOW
TO OCCUR FRI.

NEXT TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON
SUN. TROUGH WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY TO
START THE WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER WED/THU. PWATS WILL
RISE TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES...ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WITH SHOWALTERS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
THIS WOULD BE BENEFICIAL RAIN THAT COULD TOTAL AN INCH OR MORE
PERHAPS IN SOME AREAS FOR WED THROUGH THU. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING BY WED/THU WITH MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

RAIN SHOWER BAND MOVING EAST AS EXPECTED WITH VFR CIGS. SKIES
CLEARING QUICKY BEHIND IT WITH SKY CLEAR AT DVL NOW AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO THE RRV AND REACH BJI AREA MID MORNING.
QUESTION WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL. CLEAR SKY BEHIND LINE AND LIGHT
WINDS AFTER SOME LIGHT RAIN MEANS SOME FOG POTENTIAL. HRRR MODEL
SHOWS SOME AND THREW IN SOME MVFR VSBYS FOR BR INTO TVF/DVL/GFK
OVERNIGHT AS THAT MODELS SHOWS A BETTER CHC IN THIS AREA. AS USUAL
WITH RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS
UNCERTAIN. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR ON FRIDAY WITH A WEST WIND NR 10
KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.