Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 180857
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
357 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

NORTHERN STREAM FORECAST TO AMPLIFY TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE
WESTERN COAST OF CANADA WILL BUILD AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST
OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL ALSO MOVE EAST AND BE PICKED UP BY AND
PRECEDE AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH NOW OVER ALTA. PEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CLOSES OFF BY SUN MORNING

PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BEGIN TO RISE TODAY AND RISE TO AROUND AN
INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY 12Z SUN THEN DECREASES AND SHIFTS
EAST. BETTER THAN 100M HEIGHT FALLS OCCURS EAST OF ALTA TROUGH
THROUGH 84 HOURS. GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SOUTHEAST
ZONES TONIGHT ON A LOW LEVEL JET. GOOD LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALSO
OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT. THESE FEATURE SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST
ON SUN.

INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXPECTED SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT. MORE INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXPECTED MON AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED MAINLY OVER NORTHERN MN MON
AND MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NW FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BESIDES SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY
FOR THE MN PINES FROM DEPARTING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THERE IS A DRY
FORECAST WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE 2C TO 8C...YIELDING
MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S...BELOW MID APRIL NORMALS BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER
IN BRINGING PCPN/LOWER CIGS INTO THE FA WITH MOST OF THE EVENT PAST
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...VOELKER



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