Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 251447
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUDS AS THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND A LITTLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. DRIER AIR
WILL BE MOVING IN AND WHAT LITTLE FOG THERE WAS IN THE WEST HAS
DISSIPATED. FOR NOW WILL KEEP TEMPS AS THEY ARE WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST FOR THE NOON UPDATE DEPENDING ON
CLOUDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR OVER ONTARIO/NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT TOWARDS NW MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER NE KS THIS MORNING SHIFTS EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES RIGHT NOW...BUT HOW FAST
CLEARING OCCURS FROM THE EAST WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH
THE DAY...AND ASSOCIATED TEMP TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A BENIGN...LOW IMPACT WEATHER REGIME WILL PERSIST DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MOST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NAM/RAP...START TO ERODE THE
CLOUD DECK OVER NW MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SPREADING WESTWARD TONIGHT. NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR THOUGH. ASSUMING CLOUDS PERSIST MUCH OF THE
DAY...TEMPS MAY RISE ONLY MODESTLY...EVEN WITH THE RELATIVELY MILD
START TO THE DAY. FOR THAT REASON...KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. TONIGHT TEMPS LIKELY WILL BE COOLEST OVER PARTS OF NW
MN...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE
CLEAR...WHILE MORE CLOUDS FARTHER WEST MAY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT
HIGHER.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
ND NEAR A SFC BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN TO THE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
DO NOT WARM CONSIDERABLY FROM TODAY...MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH THE
DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S IN MANY
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEEK INTO THE N PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST. THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EAST DURING THIS TIME AIDED BY THE UPPER WAVE. THERE ARE
STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES...WITH THE
NAM/GFS SLOWER THAN THE GEM/ECMWF. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND AN INITIALLY DRY AIR MASS...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN. FOR NOW KEPT POPS HIGHEST OVER THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS EASTWARD INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MAGNIFIED. HIGHS ON
MONDAY COULD BE WELL INTO THE 60S...BUT THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
AND SHOWERS WILL IMPACT TEMPS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...00Z MODELS INDICATE A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND GEM ARE
STRONGER WITH ANY UPPER WAVES RIDING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT WEAKER ALLOWING UPPER WAVES TO RIDE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER...AND
LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR AND LOW VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT AND ERODE FROM
THE EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF CLOUD
TRENDS IS RATHER LOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...TG/JM
AVIATION...JM





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