Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 270235
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ECHOES ON RADAR CONTINUE TO DRY UP OR MOVE FURTHER WEST OF THE
FA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND THE 00Z NAM12 SHOW DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...SO WILL GO
AHEAD AND REMOVE PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR WEST FOR TONIGHT.
NOT EVEN SURE IF THERE WILL BE MUCH AROUND MONDAY MORNING BUT WILL
AWAIT MORE OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE TO SEE WHAT IT HAS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
ENTERING THE SASKATCHEWAN/EASTERN MONTANA AREA TONIGHT. MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THEY ALL BRING A VERY WEAK SFC TROUGH INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH FRONTOGENESIS AT 850MB AND BELOW
STARTING TO RAMP UP FROM SOUTHWESTERN ND TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOWARDS MORNING. MOST OF OUR PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOVING IN CLOSER TO 12Z...BUT STARTED RAMPING UP POPS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIP VERY SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST AND THE
BEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO KEPT MAINLY
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE EASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. WENT A BIT LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S WHILE THE CLOUDIER
WEST WILL STAY IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND SHOULD STAY
IN THE 50S...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THEIR COLD AIR ADVECTION
MODERATED BY CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING WINDS SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS THE
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF INTO ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH NOT MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING E WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND HELP BOOST
HIGH TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PCPN...AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WITH THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF THE EXPECTED PCPN...CONTINUE TO SLOW
DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE EAST IN THE TAFS. ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE PERIOD AND REALLY DO NOT SEE ANY PCPN REACHING THE
KDVL TAF SITE UNTIL LATER MONDAY MORNING. OTHER TAF SITES WILL
ONLY SEE CIRRUS OR MID CLOUDS WHILE WINDS REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...GODON






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