Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241504
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1004 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED CLOUDS FILLING IN MAINTAINING CLOUD COVER
OVER MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER. RADAR INDICATED PRECIP OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND WAS MOVING EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES FOR
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WINDS WERE UP THIS MORNING SO
INCREASED WINDS FOR TODAY. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON THE MN SIDE AND
INCREASED TEMPS ON THE ND SIDE. ALSO INCREASED DEWPOINTS ON THE ND
SIDE.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS MOVING EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED NEAR THE NOSE OF THE 850MB JET AND
AREA OF STRONGEST 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. RAP/HRRR...AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...INDICATE THE STRONG 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA BY MID AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE THAT THE RADAR ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE LIKEWISE.
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RAP/HRRR TIMING.
KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE 850MB JET REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 0.25 INCHES...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS SOME CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES TODAY. LOW LEVEL JET AND
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA...WITH EVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LIKELY SHOWERS (ISOLD THUNDER). AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS PRECIP WILL BE...WHERE IT WILL BE MOST
INTENSE...AND HOW LONG IT MIGHT CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE HRRR/RAP FOR GUIDANCE
THROUGH 18Z FOR POPS...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED POPS EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEFORE PRECIP
BEGINS...LEADING TO ALL LIQUID.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY BRINGING
PRECIP INTO THE DVL BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...MUCH OF
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLE
CONSISTENCY BRINGING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH MON
INTO TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY CONFINED CLOSER TO A
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE MODELS DO INDICATE A
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH DECENT MID/UPPER FORCING WITH THE WAVE. AFTER
EARLY WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE IN PART TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW INTERACTIONS TO THE EAST
WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT
MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST...WITH
MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK. MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
CONSISTENCY WITH THE POSITION/AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. MID-WEEK LOOKS DRIER OVERALL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
TIED TO ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WHICH HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY AT
THIS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CURRENT VFR CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE
MVFR (POSSIBLY IFR) DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO. ALSO...IF CIGS DO LOWER NOT SURE
HOW QUICKLY THEY WILL DO SO. THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO QUICK
BRINGING IN THE LOWER CIGS...BUT IT IS THE BEST GUESS FOR NOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG




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