Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 160237
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
937 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES SO
ADJUSTED WIND SPEEDS DOWN AND ALLOWED RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE.
AS FAR AS PCPN SOME WEAK ECHOES CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL MN HOWEVER CIGS IN THE MID LEVELS AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 20S SO AT BEST MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. FARTHER WEST SKIES CLEAR
VCNTY TROUGH AND HIGH RES MODELS NOT INDICATING ANY SHRA SO
DELAYED AND TRIMMED BACK ON VERY LOW POPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO SLACKEN AS LOWER LEVELS DECOUPLE AND GRADIENT
RELAXES. WILL CANCEL WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE MAINTAINING
CURRENT RED FLAG HEADLINES. OTHERWISE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST. WILL MONITOR LATE NIGHT RAIN CHANCES AS
SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE REAL LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

THE FIRE WEATHER AND WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE
WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THAT AREA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A WEAK
LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO MN TONIGHT AND START TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. SFC
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ND WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CWA AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GO DOWN AS THE TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES AND WE START TO LOSE MIXING. WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG AND
WIND ADVISORY PRODUCTS GOING BUT THINK THE THREAT SHOULD BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND THIS EVENING. MODELS HAVE BEEN LESS IMPRESSIVE
WITH PRECIP ALONG THE SFC TROUGH SO LOWERED POPS A BIT...ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE COMES UP INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
LOWERED POPS A BIT AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SPRINKLES
THAN ANYTHING ELSE.

TOMORROW...A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WE SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER
WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BUT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAK SFC PATTERN CONTINUES. TEMPS
SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER BOUNDARY DOWN ON
FRIDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH THE PUSH OF COOL
AIR WILL STILL REMAIN WEAK AND TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MAIN UPPER
LOW THAT HAS BEEN CUT OFF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS...BUT MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH THE EXACT
TRACK AND HOW FAR NORTH ITS INFLUENCE EXTENDS. THE GFS BRINGS A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF QPF ALL THE WAY NORTH OF FARGO. THE ECMWF AND
GEM ON THE OTHER HAND...BRING SOME PRECIP INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ONLY BY THE END OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND THE NAM IS
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. GIVEN THE HIGH MODEL SPREAD WENT MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD AND LEANED TOWARDS THE GEM/ECMWF AND HAVE SOME POPS IN OUR
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...REGION WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF TWO
STRONG UPPER WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH DETAILS REGARDING INTERACTIONS AMONG THESE SYSTEMS WILL
CHANGE FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES
BECOMING COOLER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND
ALMOST STALLS NEAR THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF -SN. HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR EAST OF THE REGION...WITH ONLY FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

MID LEVEL CIGS LIFTING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN FA AT AROUND 20KTS.
TIMED THESE CLOUDS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING TO THE W-NW
LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AM AS COLD FRONT CROSSES FA. PCPN
CHANCES MINIMAL.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

EXTREMELY DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH WARM DRY WEATHER AND STOUT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 35 MPH GUSTING TOWARD 50 MPH HAS RESULTED IN AND
WILL SUSTAIN GROWTH OF WILDFIRES PRINCIPALLY OVER THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. INTERSTATE 29 IS PRESENTLY CLOSED FROM NEAR MANVEL ND
NORTH TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OTHER AREAS MOSTLY ALONG THE
REMAINDER OF THE VALLEY AND WEST TOWARDS DEVILS LAKE ARE ALSO PRONE
TO WILDFIRE ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD BE LAST DAY OF SUCH WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY AT LEAST OVER THE SHORT TERM AS IT WILL BE COOLER AND NOT
AS DRY THURSDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...WJB






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