Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 171650
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1150 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD...WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS STILL
ON TRACK FOR TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CIRCULATING
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND WHILE WE EVENTUALLY SEE OUR
WEATHER CHANGE DUE TO THIS SYSTEM...IT WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY
ALLOWING OUR REGION TO ENJOY THE EFFECTS OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. NOT MUCH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL
ALLOW WIND SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH DESPITE DEEP MIXING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850MB IS LIKELY
TODAY...SO USED A MIX DOWN FOR DEW POINTS WHICH LOWERED VALUES IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN INTO THE 20S BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SAG SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO NORTHERN MN
TONIGHT...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ATTEMPTS TO CREEP
NORTHEAST. DECREASED POPS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THIS LOW AS IT BATTLES AGAINST THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO
SATURATE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY
GET HERE...BUT A THE DECREASE IN POPS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WAS
WARRANTED DUE TO THE DELAY IN SATURATION AND BEST LIFT ACROSS OUR
AREA. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE ON THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SAT-SUN...SAT STARTS OUT WITH A CUTOFF UPR LVL LOW MEANDERING OVER
CO/NM WHILE A STRONGER LONGWAVE TROF MOVES EWD OVER THE WRN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. THE SCENARIO STILL LOOKS THE SAME OF THE TROF
DIGGING INTO THE NRN CONUS...ABSORBING THE CUTOFF LOW AND THEN
EXPANDING GREATLY INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS BY LATE SUN. AT
THE SFC...A DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE TX/OK PANDHANDLES
WILL BECOME WELL-DEVELOPED BY SUN MRNG...ALLOWING STRONG PVA AND
MIDLVL OMEGA LIFT TO WORK WITHIN A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE...
THANKS TO THE GOMEX BEING TAPPED THIS FAR N...TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL STARTING IN WRN MN SAT AFTN THEN SPREADING INTO ERN MN
AND WRN WI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MRNG. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING
ISSUES FOR HOW FAR THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP WILL TRAVERSE
EWD THRU THE WFO MPX CWFA. THAT SAID...HIGH CONFIDENCE STILL
REMAINS ON MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE CWFA SEEING A GOOD RAIN EVENT
LATE SAT THRU MUCH OF SUN. QPF TOTALS MAY WELL RANGE FROM ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM ITSELF ACRS
THE AREA...AND WIDE EXPANSE OF DEEP MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT INTO
THE REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP
DUE TO THE UPR LVL TROF SETTLING OVER THE ERN CONUS...DRAGGING
DOWN MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION AND KEEPING IT IN PLACE
UNDER THE TROF. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED
FCST...HITTING THE MID 60S...WHILE SUN WILL SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE
DROP IN HIGHS FROM THE DAY PRIOR.

MON-TUE...COLDER AIR BEING DRAGGED DOWN WITH THE EXPANDING UPR LVL
TROF WILL DROP TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
COMPLICATING THINGS WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITHIN A STILL FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE COLUMN THIS WILL SPELL OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME
RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE
COLDEST PORTIONS OF THE DAY.

WED-THU...PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE COOLER AIR IN
PLACE WHILE THE LONGWAVE CENTRAL CONUS TROF SHIFTS OFF TO THE ERN
NOAM COAST AT THE SAME TIME...UPR LVL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WRN CONUS...KEEPING THE CENTRAL STATES IN A DRY COOL PATTERN
WITH NO SYSTEMS AVAILABLE FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA. LIGHT N-NW WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST
AND INCREASING SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS 20-25KTS POSSIBLE INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER MN.

KMSP...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD. LIGHT N-NW WINDS BECOMING NE AND THEN EAST
INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...CHACNE MVFR/-RA. WINDS E AT 10G20 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS BECOMING NW
AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...DWE


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