Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMPX 250016
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
716 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA MAY SNEAK NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE FORCING IS NOT IMPRESSIVE LOCALLY AND
MOST OF WHAT WE SEE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE AND STRATUS.
GIVEN THE LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S RANGE...SO FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. WARMING WILL THEREFORE BE INHIBITED...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S UNDER A BRISK EASTERLY WIND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE
EXTENT OF WARMING FOLLOWING THIS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONTINUITY REMAINS WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT SOME DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING/MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH. THE OVERALL HANDLING OF PHASING
OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTO THE LARGE EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK IS THE MAIN ISSUE.
WE WILL CONTINUE THE LOW CHANCE POP TREND WITH THE SYSTEM COLD
FRONT/TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WAVE...WAITING
FOR THE LEADING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND...ENDING POPS INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT TO THE EAST.

ANOTHER DRY TREND FOLLOWS THIS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND AS THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST AND THE WEATHER CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS IS
MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS RIDGING AND WOULD BRING SIGNIFICANT
WARMING INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY. WILL DELAY SIGNIFICANT
WARMING...LOWER 70S TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY...THEN MAINLY 70S IN
THE MINNESOTA PORTION OF THE CWA FOR NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO WI AND EASTERN MN THIS
EVENING...AND THOSE SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST WITH TIME. THE RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON HAS LEFT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND 2-5 MILE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. WHILE THE VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE
SHOWERS DIMINISH...THERE IS ALSO A GOOD CHANCE CEILINGS WILL LOWER
WITH TIME AND EVENTUALLY BECOME IFR TONIGHT. A DRIER EAST-
NORTHEAST WIND MIGHT KEEP SITES SUCH AS KMSP/KRNH/KEAU FROM
DROPPING BELOW 1000FT...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP
WATCHING.

KMSP...
THE AIRPORT REMAINS NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN...BUT THE
EASTERN MOVEMENT IS SLOW AND THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REGENERATING
OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THE RAIN WILL CLEAR AT
LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS AND KMSP MIGHT ACTUALLY HAVE A PERIOD OF VFR
BETWEEN 02Z-06Z. WE EVENTUALLY THINK THE CEILINGS WILL LOWER
TONIGHT BELOW 2000FT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NNE 5-10 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.