Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 031657
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1157 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING FROM WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE FRONT EXPECTED TO KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN TO NERN SODAK AT 3 AM. A
COUPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...AND HAVE BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING DURING THE
PAST COUPLE HOURS. THE IMPULSE RESPONSIBLE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MN THROUGH EARLY MORNING AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS BY SUNRISE NORTH OF I-94. LITTLE WILL FOCUS
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LEFT OVER
BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ATOP A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR FROM NWRN WI TO FAR
ERN MN SOMETIME BETWEEN 19-21Z. THE BEST FORCING AND THUS MOST
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE THERE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE
DISCRETE CELLS ACROSS SRN MN WHERE FORCING WILL BE WEAKER INITIALLY.
A QLCS SHOULD FORM WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF INITIATION AND SAG
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING. A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS MAY BRING STRONGER
WIND GUSTS AND THE MORE INTENSE CORES MAY BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL PUSH IN TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

LONGER TERM CONCERNS ARE TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGES. TEMPERATURES COOL INTO
EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE WEEK. OVERALL TREND IS ABOVE NORMAL WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY...MONDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT STALLS TO THE SOUTH OVER IOWA...WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING IN
MORE CLOUDS AND A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
WITH THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE...THEREFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THEN IS THE RULE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE APPROACHED THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND SHOULD DRAG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN TO THE
REGION...AS MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE AROUND ONE HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE EVEN A BETTER DAY FOR RAIN FOR THE
CWA.

SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT TRENDS TO REMAIN MORE SOUTHWEST. WE
MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM POPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. RETAINED THE SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW...IN DEFERENCE TO MODEL TRENDS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
COMES ASHORE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK...AND WILL
LIKELY AFFECT THE WEATHER LATER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT MORE SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS
LESSENING WITH EACH WARM DAY AS SPRING GREEN UP CONTINUES. MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S PERCENT
AGAIN BUT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH.
FROST THREAT IS MINIMAL THIS WEEK AS WELL WITH THE AREA SEEING
HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MN WAS NOT ADVERTISED WELL IN
THE SHORT TERM MODELS INITIALLY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUNS DO HAVE
SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MN THRU THE
EARLY AFTN HRS. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SC/SE SD
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER ON MORE TSRA BY MID/LATE ALONG
THIS FRONT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A SECONDARY WAVE OF SHRA/TSRA
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THIS SCENARIO REMAINS
LOW ON THE CONFIDENCE SCALE. BEST BET IS CONTINUE THE VCTS DURING
THE AFTN...WITH A TEMPO WHICH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
HIGHEST AND MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF REFLECTIVITY ON THE RADAR.
OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL SEE VFR AFT 3Z...WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA POSSIBLE AT KEAU AFT 3Z...THRU 6Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
N/NW BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...AND BECOME MORE N/NE MONDAY MORNING.

KMSP...

AM FOLLOWING THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS ON THE EXPANSION OF
HIGHER RADAR RETURNS ARND 20-22 NW OF THE TERMINAL...AND MOVING
THRU THE TERMINAL AREA BETWEEN 22-01Z. TIMING WILL BE ADJUSTED IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THE TERMINAL WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN TSRA AFT 22Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON HOW
LONG IT WILL OCCUR AND ENDING TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW/N
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A MORE NE FLOW MONDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR EARLY. SHRA/TSRA AFTN/EVE WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JLT


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