Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 150349 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1049 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
403 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW REVOLVE AROUND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS - PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. DESPITE THE
DRY AIRMASS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT FALL TO THE COLD VALUES OF
YDAY DUE TO THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND INCREASINGLY EXPANSIVE
CIRRUS BY LATE TONIGHT. VERY SHALLOW INVERSIONS TONIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY QUICK INCREASE IN TEMPS AND SOUTH WINDS
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE INVERSION MIXES OUT BETWEEN 8-10 AM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
403 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

A COUPLE OF S/W TROFS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE FIRST ONE ON THURSDAY WILL DRAG A WEAKENING
SURFACE TROF/COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER...AND SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH...AND A SHIFT TO STRONGER NW WINDS AND
COLDER TEMPS FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER WARM UP WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY-
MONDAY TIME FRAME...BUT APPEARS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHER
QUALITY MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AND INCREASE TO 15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. SW WINDS BECOMING WNW 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. ISOLD VFR RAIN SHOWERS PSBL. WINDS WNW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. ESE WINDS 5-10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
403 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS
EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS TEMPS COOL...HUMIDITIES
RISE... AND SURFACE WINDS WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...DESPITE PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS THAN WHAT
WERE FORECAST...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CRITICAL FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS THIS EVENING WITH SOME TEMPS NEAR 80 AND HUMIDITIES LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN LAND MANAGEMENT
AGENCIES...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND FOR EAU CLAIRE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FOR THE NOON TO 8 PM TIME PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
MINNESOTA. HUMIDITIES AND TEMPS ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL NOT BE AS
CRITICAL ON WEDNESDAY AS TODAY...BUT HUMIDITIES IN PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ041>045-047>050.

WI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WIZ028.

&&

$$

AVIATION...BORGHOFF


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