Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 291059
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
459 AM MDT WED APR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT WED APR 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
TROFFING JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE
RIDGE INTO NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE
TROF ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND CENTRAL WYOMING. TEMPS ARE IN THE
40S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH 30S OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WESTERN
TROF ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY...WITH SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
CONTINUING TO BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND 70S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
ONLY FALL INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
THIS WILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES TO FAVORED
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE PINE RIDGE AND THE FAITH AREAS.

THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS STRONG TROF CROSSES THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...SHIFTING
WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWEST. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
EAST...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COULD PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE 60S IN THE WEST...TO NEAR 80 IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. SKIES WILL CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT WED APR 29 2015

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING SEVERAL
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-TSRA AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. UPPER AIR PATTERN SLOWLY
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND RIDGE TO OUR EAST. ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY EMERGE WITH A POTENTIALLY WET
PATTERN DEVELOPING...BUT THE JURY IS STILL OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MDT WED APR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON



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