Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 250510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND THAN NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM IN THE MID 70S. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PUSHES THOUGH BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. STORMS OVER THE HILLS AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...IN THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A
STRONGER STORM/MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THIS AREA AS WELL THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT EXPECT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO POSSIBLY LINGER THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...BEST CHANCES GENERALLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A STRONG
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY AND
DRIFT INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON MONDAY. AS THE FLOW SPLITS...WEAKER
NRN STREAM TROF SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY. VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

WDSPRD STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS
EARLY SAT MORNING AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. PATCHY FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THE SD PLAINS SAT MORNING. VFR CONDS EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF NE WY THROUGH LATE SAT MORNING...WITH SOME MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE LATE SAT MORNING BEHIND A SFC TROUGH. CIGS SHOULD
TREND HIGHER WITH DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING ALL PLACES SAT AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...EXPECTED SHRA MAY PRODUCE SCT MVFR CONDS THROUGH MUCH OF
SAT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC



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