Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 012326
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
526 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING WESTERN
MT...SUPPORTING A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE
PERIOD. POS THETA-E ADV WILL REV UP TONIGHT ACROSS THE
FA...ALTHOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY ELEVATED
CONVECTION AT BAY...SUPPORTING MAINLY ACCAS/VIRGA ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD. SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SAT MORNING...TIMING WITH PEAK HEATING OVER THE EASTERN FA. LL
MOISTURE ADVECTION...COUPLED WITH WEAK LSA/PEAK HEATING WILL
SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHRA/TS THREAT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA
LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DECENT CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG
WILL BE IN PLACE IN SCENTRAL SD...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A
PULSE/STRONG STORM OR TWO. HOWEVER..DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
LOW...LESS THAN 25 KNOTS WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. WARM DAY
EXPECTED SAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON THE SD
PLAINS...SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER NE WY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

A FEW LINGERING SHRA/TS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN SCENTRAL
SD...GIVEN A DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL LLJ AHEAD OF THE LL TROUGH.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS SOME WEAK INDICATION IN FORECAST MODELS FOR
MAYBE A SHRA OVER FAR NW AREAS OVERNIGHT SAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK GRAZES THE AREA. HOWEVER...LEFT THINGS DRY ATTM GIVEN
CONCERNS ON MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL BRING
NEARLY DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. UPPER FLOW THEN BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
DISTURBANCE EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WED/THU
WHICH WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. GFS IS
SHOWING WELL OVER AN INCH OF QPF FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS WRN SD.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES OF PRECIP PERSISTING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7



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