Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 280513
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1113 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NORTHWEST MN TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND WESTERN NEB. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER FAR EASTERN MT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN ND
INTO WESTERN SD. NARROW SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS FINALLY BREAKING DOWN
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MN. BUILDING RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
WEST COAST. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY
AND WESTERN SD...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT
SHOWERS RIGHT NOW FROM FAR NORTHEAST WY THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS
AREA AND ACROSS NORTHWEST SD. TEMPS RANGE FROM AROUND 40 OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS...TO THE UPPER 60S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
MOSTLY 10 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON FEATURES...WITH MAIN DIFFERENCES
COMING WITH REGARD TO WHEN SHOWERS END TONIGHT AND WHEN CLOUDS
DECREASE. MAINLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MIDWEEK.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF...ENDING LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS COULD LINGER ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SD INTO EARLY
TUESDAY IF THE DRIER DOES NOT PUSH IN QUICK ENOUGH. LOWS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 30S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WINDS WILL SWITCH
TO THE SOUTH OVER NORTHEAST WY OVERNIGHT...WHILE STAYING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR NORTHERLY ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ON TUESDAY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WHILE WINDS MAY
STAY NORTHERLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE BEGINNING TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE BLACK HILLS AS ADEQUATE
MOISTURE REMAINS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER TO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AN UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO
CROSS THE NRN PLAINS THURSDAY BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE
AREA ALONG WITH SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ZONAL
FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION WITHIN THE FLOW...WITH VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015

LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON


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