Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 062105
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
305 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FAR
NORTHEAST CO. A COLD FRONT LIES FROM FAR WESTERN ND INTO THE BLACK
HILLS AREA AND ACROSS SOUTHERN WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST NEB...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN PLAINS. DEFORMATION ZONE IN PLACE OVER
WESTERN SD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TO
THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS TO THE
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS ALSO NOTED TO THE
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW HEAVIER ACTIVITY
OVER CENTRAL NEB...ROTATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT...UPPER 40S AND 50S TO THE WEST ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE
BLACK HILLS.

SHOWERY WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN
WILL BE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN SD AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE AREA...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EVENING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
HIGHER BLACK HILLS TO THE 50S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK
HILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THURSDAY WITH REGARD TO PCPN CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. ECMWF...GFS...AND SREF GENERALLY SHOW
MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY...WITH CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRYING OUT BY LATE
IN THE DAY. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE NAM AND KEEP CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGHER POPS OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS DURING THE
DAY. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY
EVENING...WITH SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOME FROST LOOKS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS OVER CALIFORNIA...WEAK ENERGY WILL EJECT
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AROUND...MAINLY ACROSS THE SW CWA. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE
SATURDAY AS THE CALIFORNIA CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. COLD AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH BOTH THE ECM AND GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS
AROUND 0C. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
STORM...BUT WILL PROBABLY FALL AS SNOW AT LEAST ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS. THERE IS STILL LOTS OF DEBATE AS TO
WHETHER SNOW WILL MAKE IT OR STICK TO THE GROUND ACROSS THE LOWER
PLAINS...AND HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION THERE WILL BE IF ANY. PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...AND THEN MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A
WARMING TREND AND DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE...GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA INTO TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO THU MORNING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13


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