Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 292114
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
314 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHWEST SK TO WESTERN MT AND SOUTHERN ID. A LEE TROF EXTENDS
FROM NORTH CENTRAL MT TO EASTERN WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
RIGHT NOW. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING
BRINGING A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
ASSOCIATED CHANCES FOR PCPN LATER IN THE DAY WITH POST FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST WY AS FRONT APPROACHES. A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY THIS EVENING OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS AND NEB...HELPING TO KEEP WINDS AND TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT. THE
GUSTIEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE USUAL AREAS FROM THE PINE RIDGE TO
THE FAITH AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST WY LATE TONIGHT...AND ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN SD IN THE MORNING...BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AS IT
REACHES CENTRAL SD AROUND MIDDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM K2WX TO KRAP...WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH ARE EXPECTED. SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MOSTLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
STILL LOOK RELATIVELY LOW... ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...BUT AS THE WAVE TRIES TO CATCH UP WITH THE COOL
FRONT...THE CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE IN THE DAY. CAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY LOW...SO THE CHANCES FOR ANY
STRONGER STORMS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE UPPER 70S OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AND ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SD WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING SEVERAL
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-TSRA AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE 12Z
RUN THE ECM IS MOVING MORE TOWARD THE WETTER GFS...SO AM GOING
WITH 40 POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO MOST LOCATIONS. MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE WY AND THE NRN BLKHLS THU MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



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