Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 040559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. AN APPROACHING WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...ALONG WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 159 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE A SFC COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...MIDWEST...AND GREAT PLAINS STATES. OUR
REGION IS SITUATED UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WITH HEIGHTS ABOUT
1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION...WITH
JUST SOME PASSING ALTOSTRATUS CLOUDS AROUND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY...SFC WINDS HAVE GONE CALM IN MOST AREAS...WITH JUST A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE REMAINING A FEW SPOTS. IN THOSE AREAS WHERE
THE WIND REMAINS /SUCH AS AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION/...TEMPS HAVE
HELD UP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...THANKS TO THE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE. WITH THE WIND EXPECTED TO GO CALM
EVERYWHERE...LOW TEMPS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 50 IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR MONDAY EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY WITH SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN THE
DAY. IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
WIND GUSTS 15 TO 25 MPH. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MONDAY EVENING INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF OUR FA BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. HAVE NOT
PLACED ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THE MLMUCAPES ARE ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST AND THE SHOWALTER INDICES REMAIN POSITIVE
DURING THE PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FA. EXPECT LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

OTHER THAN A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FA TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
TO RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD TRANSITIONS FROM DRY TO SHOWERY...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN...AND A WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE INFLUX
OF MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...THUS SOME SOUTHERN ZONES MAY NOT SEE
ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE CLOSING IN PROXIMITY OF A
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL...HOWEVER...INCREASE POPS...
BRINGING US OUR GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERY WETTING ON SUNDAY.
CAPES AND OTHER INDICES ARE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE FROM
AROUND 70 TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  LOWS START OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY IN THE 40S...THEN /MILD UP/ INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR ALBANY DURING THIS
PERIOD ARE IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/TUESDAY.
FEW TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE ADDED VICINITY SHOWERS TO KGFL
AND KALB TAFS FOR PRIOR TO 06Z/TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
GREATER AFTER 06Z/TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS KALB OTHERWISE CALM WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED AND BECOME GUSTY AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME DURING THE EVENING LOSING
THEIR GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW
YORK...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT FROM NOON
UNTIL 8 PM ON MONDAY. LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MAINLY IN
CONTROL. IT HAS BEEN MORE THAN A WEEK SINCE OUR REGION HAS
RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. NO LOCATIONS HAVE REACHED A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE PAST 5 DAYS.

RH VALUES SHOULD RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT RANGE TONIGHT WITH
SOME DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT ALL AREAS MAY NOT
RECEIVE A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT 1O
TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT TO 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
ENDING THURSDAY.

IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVERS AND
STREAMS TO LOWER FURTHER...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD AS
VEGETATION IS BEGINNING TO BLOOM. A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
ADIRONDACKS MONDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE AROUND A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11



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