Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 261854
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
254 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...FOR WET SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA AS A LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW OF AIR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE PASSES SOUTH AS PER WV IMAGERY. THE LL NW FLOW THAT HAS SET
UP WAS LEADING TO A LAKE SHADOW INTO THE UPPER FINGER LAKES BUT
THERE WAS STILL SCT-BKN CUMULUS IN THESE AREAS. MODELS INDICATE A
FEW ISLD SHRA COULD POP UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS WHERE
UPSLOPING AND STRG ENUF HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME CONVECTIVE
SHRA. SO WE HAVE MAINLY SPRINKLES IN THESE SPOTS AS THE AMS WAS
RATHER DRY.

FOR THIS EVENING...THINK THE CLOUDS WILL WANE FOR A TIME WITH THE
LOSS OF THE DAY/S HEATING SO THERE CUD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
FOR A TIME AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL OCCUR BEFORE A MOIST LAYER BTWN
850 AND 925 MB ADVECTS SOUTHWARD AND REACHES NC NY ARND 4-5Z AND
DOWN TO NE PA LATE TONIGHT ARND 9-12Z. AS A RESULT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY
ROTATING ARND THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE MARITIMES SOME LIGHT SHRASN
OR SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WILL REACH THE FINGER LAKES TO UPPER MOHAWK
VALLEY BTWN 9 AND 12Z. REST OF C NY AND NE PA WILL BE DRY
OVERNIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...LL NW WINDS AND LL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
DAY/S HEATING FOR SCT SHRA OR SPRINKLES WHICH COULD MIX WITH SNOW
FLURRIES AT TIMES EARLY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SUPPORT THIS
CONVECTIVE ACVTY. PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED. WE ARE EXPECTING
MAINLY A BKN-OVC DAY AND IT WILL REMAIN QUITE CHILLY WITH HIGHS
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE 50S...MUCH LIKE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...RESIDUAL SHRA WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE WANING
DIURNAL HEATING WITH CLOUDS LINGERING MOST OF MON NGT AS PER THE
925 MB AND 850 MB RH FIELDS. BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NARROW
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SFC THRU 500 MB WITH DRY WEATHER AND LESS AND LESS CLOUDS BY
WEDNESDAY AND MODERATING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS AND EURO ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE CLSD LOW AND
DVLPG CSTL SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM...WITH THE GFS TRENDING TWRD
THE EURO. LONG WV PTRN IS SIMILAR WITH FLAT RDGG INTO THE UPR MID
WEST. DFRNCS CONT TO STEM FROM THE HANDLING OF A NRN STREAM WV
DROPPING INTO THE EAST CST TROF...AND IT/S INTERACTIONS WITH A
STRONG SRN STREAM SYSTEM. EURO CONTS TO KEEP A SEPERATE AND
DOMINENT SRN STREAM STORM MVG OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST...KEEPING
A WEAK TROF TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN
THE NRN WV AND CAPTURE THE SRN WV RESULTING IN A DEEP SYSTEM OFF
THE CST AND A CLSD UPR LOW OVER WRN NY. GFS SOLN WLD LIKELY
PRODUCE A COLDER AND WETTER SCENARIO...PERHAPS SOME SNOW...FOR THE
FCST AREA. EURO WLD CONT TO KEEP THE AREA BLO NRML...BUT MUCH LGTR
AND ALL LIQUID ON THE PCPN.

WITH THE GFS/S TENDANCY TO CREATE BOGUS DEEP STORMS IN THE LONG
TERM...WILL CONT TO FOLLOW THE EURO SOLN AND KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS
WITH BLO NRML TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE XTNDD PD. THIS ALSO ALLOWS FOR
A CONTD GRADUAL IMPRVMT IN THE WX INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SOME LGT PCPN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THRU OOZ...EXPECT VFR UNDER BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS BTWN 5000 AND
7000 FEET. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING BTWN 23Z/00Z AND 4-9Z WITH
THE LOSS OF THE THERMALS. HOWEVER A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF MOISTURE
WILL HEAD SOUTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING FROM SRN CANADA WITH VFR
CIGS ARND 4-5 KFT REACHING SYR-RME-BGM BY 3-4Z...ITH AND ELM BY
5-6Z AND AVP BY 9Z. THE CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT RME-SYR BY
7Z...ITH AND BGM BY 9-10Z. AT RME...ITH AND BGM CIGS LIKELY WILL
AT TIMES DROP TO IFR FROM 9-10Z TO 13-14Z. ELM AND AVP SHUD REMAIN
MOSTLY VFR WITH ELM POTENTIALLY DROPPING TO MVFR BRIEFLY BTWN 10
AND 14Z. AFTER 14-15Z...CIGS WILL BE MVFR-VFR AND IMPROVING.

WINDS WILL BE N TO NW ARND 10 KNOTS W/ GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL DROP UNDER 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
REACH 10-12 KNOTS W/ GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR SO BY LATE MORNING
MONDAY FROM THE NW.

.OUTLOOK...
MON NGT...PSBL MVFR CIGS AT TIMES DUE TO THE COOL NLY FLOW.
TUE - THU...MAINLY VFR.
FRI...POSSIBLY MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN AND BR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJN



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