Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCAR 180650
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
250 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TODAY AND SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY AS A LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEXT S/WV TO AFFECT THE CWA LTR TDA IS MVG SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AT
THIS TIME. MODELS AGREE ON TRACK OF THIS WV SLIDING INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY SRN MAINE BY 00Z TONIGHT HWVR THEY STILL
DISAGREE ON NWRD EXTENT OF QPF ASSOC WITH IMPENDING SYSTEM. GFS
CONTS TO BE THE OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO NAM/EC, THO LATEST HIRES
ARW AND NMM AND LATEST RAP, TO A LESSER EXTENT, HAS TRENDED NORTH
WITH QPF SHIELD. AT THIS TIME, THINK THAT DRY AIRMASS WL BE HARD TO
OVERCOME IN ENUF TIME TO JUSTIFY POPS MAINLY NORTH OF A KATAHDIN-
DANFORTH LINE. IN GENERAL JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLDS OVR NRN
ZONES WITH VIRGA EXPECTED LATE AFTN/EARLY EVNG HRS.

CURRENT TEMPS HV DROPPED DOWN TO RIGHT ARND FRZG ACRS NRN ZONES IN
CAA BHND SFC CDFNT NOW BISECTING THE STATE OF MAINE. STILL EXPECTING
MORNING MINS TO DROP TO RIGHT ARND 30F ACRS NORTHERN CNTYS WITH
INTERIOR DOWNEAST FALLING INTO THE M/U 30S. GIVEN CLD CVR EXPECTED
TDA HIGHS SHUD ONLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE U40S OVR THE CROWN OF
MAINE WITH M50S OVR SRN SXNS OF FA. THESE TEMPS WL BE SOME 10-15
DEGREES CLDR THAN YDA THO STILL RIGHT ARND NORMAL VALUES.

FCST QPF VALUES OF 0.10-0.20 INCHES ACRS SRN AND WRN ZONES AS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE MOISTURE-STARVED AT THIS POINT. THIS IS FORTUNATE IN
THAT LIQUID PCPN LOOKS TO FALL IN AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY RIVER ICE.

00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INVERTED TROF KEEPING CHC FOR
SHOWERS IN THRU MIDNIGHT PERHAPS ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
NRN SOMERSET CNTY. PCPN WL BE TOO QUICK TO WIND DOWN AND HV FOREGONE
ANY ACCUMS AT THIS TIME. MINS WL BE IN THE U20S IN THE NORTH UNDER
MOCLDY SKIES AND L/M30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING CLEARING
ON SUNDAY BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUR FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND RAIN WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE DOWNEAST REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SECONDARY LOW
FORMING IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE RAIN APPROACHES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN WILL PUSH NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
THICKNESSES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE
SLEET TO MIX IN EARLY TUESDAY. 850-700 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN BUT 1000-850 THICKNESSES SUGGEST A BIT OF SLEET IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A PUSH OF DRY AIR MAY BRING SOME BRIGHTENING ON WEDNESDAY.
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CLOUDS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY
FILL IN AGAIN AS MOISTURE CIRCULATING IN THE TROUGH MOVES BACK
INTO THE AREA. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM
OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 850-700
THICKNESSES ARE MUCH COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT 1000-850
THICKNESSES SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN IN ALL BUT FAR WESTERN AREAS. SNOW
IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE VERY ELEVATIONALLY
DEPENDENT WITH THE MID LEVEL THICKNESSES LOW AND THE AIR UNSTABLE.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME WET
SNOW POSSIBLE OVER HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH THE AIR CONTINUING TO
BE COLD ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED TO START OFF AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AFTER 21Z AT BGR AND
BHB IN LIGHT RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE. IFR
POTENTIAL FOR CIGS AT BHB FOR A TIME AFTER 00Z WITH ALL SITES
LIKELY TO SEE MVFR CIGS AFTER 02Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATER MONDAY THEN IFR ON TUESDAY.
AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TUESDAY NIGHT THEN VFR WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY
BEFORE CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN SCA MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE JAM ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER NEAR WASHBURN CAUSED FLOODING
RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROADS IN THE AREA TO BE CLOSED. AN AREAL
FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WASHBURN TO PRESQUE ISLE THROUGH
MID MORNING. THE ICE JAM APPEARS TO HAVE RELEASED BUT RIVER LEVELS
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. ICE MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE
ON THE AROOSTOOK AND ST JOHN RIVERS ALONG WITH TRIBUTARIES INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO JUST BELOW FREEZING AND SLOW
SNOWMELT INTO MID MORNING. ICE MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS. THESE JAMS
WILL CAUSE RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AND WILL LEAD TO
FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO ADVANCED NOTICE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ001-002.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER
HYDROLOGY...FARRAR/HASTINGS/NORCROSS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.