Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 180533
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
133 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY...DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN THE AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO
SCATTERED SKIES AND A LIGHT WIND. THE RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE AND
DIMINISHING WIND COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL MORNING UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE...A POTENT SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG A
DRY...QUASI BACKDOOR CFRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY.

DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND A TIGHTENING LLVL P-GRADIENT WILL
KICK THE WINDS UP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE PART OF THE
STATE.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST...BUT PERHAPS ONLY
THE M-U60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT AS UPPER RIDGE EXITS TO THE
EAST...WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOT BRINING ANY RAIN INTO THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER 21Z PRECEDED BY THICKENING CLOUDS. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE
SW FOR LATE IN THE DAY...AND NUDGE DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY.

POTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPS OVER OHIO VALLEY AND
LIFTS ACROSS PA SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF LARGE TROUGH WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE SETTLED IN TO QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER PAST SEVERAL RUNS BRINGING TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THE FIRST SUN NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE VERY MOIST FLOW AND LL JET /WITH REMNANTS
OF AN OLD UPPER LOW LIFTING ALONG WITH IT/. COULD BE A BREAK IN
THE ACTION MON BEFORE ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP PUSHES THROUGH WITH
COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE EVENT LOOKS
TO BE POTENTIALLY IN THE 1-2" RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. AREA OF 500-1000J CAPE SLIPS IN
MONDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME SCT TSTMS MAINLY TO THE WEST.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LGT/VRB
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. STILL CAN/T
RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG BTWN 08Z-12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW/COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO NR 20KTS. WINDS WILL SHOULD BE
LIGHT ACROSS THE S/W AIRSPACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY. A PERIOD OF
LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY 50+KT LLJ.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. FINER FUELS SHOULD
DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY FROM THE RECENT RAIN...AND THE CURRENT FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
MAY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...



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