Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 251144
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
644 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SAN ANTONIO AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 KTS AND REDUCE VIS TO AROUND 2SM. NOT
EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION IN AUSTIN OR DEL RIO. AUS SHOULD BE VFR
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. MVFR VIS AT DRT WILL LAST UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING THEN THEY WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WILL DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING FROM DEL RIO
EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90. HI-RES MODELS MOVE THIS
CLUSTER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. MLCAPES OF 2600 J/KG AND VERY
LARGE SHEAR INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC
HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH 15Z OR 10 AM CDT. PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES INDICATES SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THE STORMS ARE
RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME
AREAS. IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE...A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES HOLD FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE INCREASES
LEADING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG SHEAR AND HIGH CAPES COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS THE DRYLINE THEN COLD FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. HIGH CAPES AND STRONG SHEAR
INDICATE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BROADENS WITH SOME WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. A DRIER
AIRMASS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  66  87  66  84 /  20  10  30  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  67  86  65  83 /  20  10  30  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  67  87  67  84 /  20  10  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  63  86  62  82 /  -   10  30  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  65  90  62  87 /  -   10  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  66  86  64  83 /  10  10  30  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  66  88  64  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  67  86  66  83 /  20  10  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  69  86  69  82 /  30  10  20  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  67  88  67  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  68  88  68  84 /  20  10  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



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