Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 030658
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
255 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...BECOMING BREEZY/WINDY WITH COASTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...

.NEAR TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...LARGE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH
WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY AND STRENGTHEN. ONSHORE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST COAST ON
MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MODELS GRADUALLY INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON MONDAY AND HAVE CONFINED ANY ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT TO THE FL COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR THE COAST IN THE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S
INLAND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S INLAND AND 60S NEAR THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TRANSITION PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLC STATES WHILE
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND DRIFT NORTH.
THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS PUSHING ONSHORE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL MAINLY
IMPACT THE COASTAL COUNTIES ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND HAVE KEPT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-30% RANGE FOR NOW. MOISTURE OFF THE ATLC WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED HEAVY PCPN AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH
SPOTTY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CLIMO LEVELS
WITH 75-80 ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND 80-85 OVER INLAND
COUNTIES. BREEZY/WINDY NORTHEAST FLOW AT 15-25 GUST 30-35 MPH
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST...WITH LESSER WINDS EXPECTED INLAND. SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS STILL
UNCERTAIN ABOUT TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 300-500 MILES EAST OF
JAX BUT MOST SEEM TO KEEP IT NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN IT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. WINDS SLOWLY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AT THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AND IF THIS HOLDS TRUE IT WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CONSENSUS POPS KEEP JUST LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LAND AREAS
WITH POSSIBLE DIURNAL SHOWERS POPPING UP IN DAYTIME HEATING. MAX
TEMPS SLOWLY NUDGE CLOSER TO CLIMO VALUES FOR EARLY MAY IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S INLAND AND NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST. MAIN IMPACTS IN
THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY CONDS ALONG THE COAST AND
ENHANCED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE N AND NE WHILE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND DRIFTS N. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS
TO THE EAST.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ONSHORE
WINDS AND EASTERLY SWELLS INCREASE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30-35
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS SO NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  57  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  74  62  74  64 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  80  60  79  62 /   0   0  10   0
SGJ  75  63  75  66 /   0  10  10  10
GNV  80  55  81  60 /   0   0  10   0
OCF  82  57  83  61 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/HESS


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