Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 040825
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
325 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST RIDGING ACROSS THE
GULF...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH A SE FLOW. WITHIN THE FLOW...IR
SAT, RADAR, AND SFC OBS SHOWING THE FIRST EASTERLY WAVE OF THE
SEASON ACROSS THE N GULF OFF THE SE LA/MS COAST.

THIS EASTERLY WAVE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD...INCREASING POPS TO 20-30%
FROM E TO W THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUE. ALSO...SE WINDS WILL INCREASE
EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...WITH FLAGS BECOMING
NECESSARY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S
THIS MORNING CAN BE EXPECTED TUE MORNING AS WELL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST OF THE REGION...POPS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST 20% FOR AFTERNOON POPCORN
DEVELOPMENT. THE WX PATTERN NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THIS WEEK...
ALTHOUGH A SFC LOW OF POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN MAY AFFECT THE SE
U.S. COAST LATER THIS WEEK...STAYING WELL EAST OF OUR REGION. OTHERWISE
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH
A DOMINATE SE FLOW FOR OUR REGION. THE BEST POPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER C AND N TX INTO OK. BY
LATE SAT INTO SUN...THE RIDGE MAY BREAKDOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE
TROF AND MOISTURE TO INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH EVEN
HIGHER POPS POSSIBLE BY NEXT MON. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSTANT...LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
80S.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS 15 KTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KTS THIS EVENING...ALONG
WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 4-7 FT OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. FOR THIS...SCA ISSUED FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES...AND SCEC FOR
0-20NM ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TUE. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...DIMINISHING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE AS THE EASTERLY WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND TUESDAY.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  63  82  62 /  20  20  10  10
LCH  81  67  81  66 /  20  20  20  10
LFT  80  64  81  64 /  30  20  10  10
BPT  81  69  80  69 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ452-455.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ450.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...08



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