Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KLKN 202100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS NEVADA EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN WILL
RESTRICTED TO NEAR WHITE PINE COUNTY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WARM PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

CLEAR AND QUIET ACROSS NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, OUTSIDE OF THE
SMOKE, IMPORTED FROM WILDFIRES IN SIBERIA. NO INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO MOST CUMULUS BUILDUPS OUTSIDE OF THE
CWA. ANOTHER RED SMOKY SUNSET THIS EVENING.

EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE
CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED, AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN,
CONFIDENT THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ROAMING THE HIGH
DESERT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR THE GRIDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, GENERALLY FOLLOWED 12Z NAM`S CONVECTION PLACEMENT,
DRASTICALLY REDUCING ITS OVERDONE QPF AMOUNTS. ON THURSDAY, LEANED
MORE TO THE GLOBAL GFS/ECMWF MODELS, WHICH ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT REGARDING CONVECTION PROSPECTS ON THURSDAY.

TUESDAY...EXPECT CUMULUS BUILDUPS TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL NEVADA
CONVERGENCE ZONE, ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM GABBS TO EUREKA TO GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK, AS DEPICTED BY
NAM. INSTABILITY IS VERY MODEST ALONG THIS CORRIDOR TUESDAY, WITH
LIFTED INDEX FROM 0 TO -1C, AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH PW
STILL NEAR OR LESS THAN 0.25 INCH. AS SUCH, ANY RAINFALL WILL BE
ISOLATED, BRIEF AND HARD TO COME BY. VIRGA MORE THAN ANYTHING.
KEPT POP COVERAGE RESTRICTED TO ISOLATED ALONG THE CONVERGENCE
ZONES IN CENTRAL NEVADA TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, FANTASTIC SPRING
WEATHER FOR NEVADA, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
LIGHT WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NE NEVADA. UPPER FORCING IS NEBULOUS AND ILL-DEFINED, BUT 12Z
ECMWF DOES SHOW VARIOUS WEAK VORT MAXES ROTATING NORTH INTO THE
GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WELL AHEAD OF THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW IN THE PACIFIC WEST OF LOS ANGELES. GFS FORECASTS PW TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 0.50 INCH FOR MOST ZONES, AND NAM FORECASTS
STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG A GABBS-EUREKA-RUBY MTNS-JARBIDGE MTNS
LINE DURING THE DAY. LIFTED INDEX AS LOW AS -4C, SO CONFIDENT
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MATERIALIZE. WITH CLOUDS AND CONVECTION,
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY, COMPARED TO TUESDAY`S READINGS.

THURSDAY...PACIFIC UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO ARIZONA. FOLLOWED
GFS/ECMWF PRECIP/QPF PLACEMENT AS A GUIDE FOR THE GRIDS, WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT THOSE MODELS ARE BETTER REPRESENTING THE
DEFORMATION AXIS NORTH OF THE ARIZONA LOW. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THURSDAY, FOCUSING ON THE SE 1/2
OF THE CWA. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT DRIER MORE STABLE AIR WILL
FILTER INTO NW NEVADA/HUMBOLDT COUNTY, AND WITH COORDINATION WITH
WFO RENO, REDUCED POPS THERE. TEMPERATURES DECLINE ANOTHER 2-5
DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY`S READINGS.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. EC AND GFS ARE BOTH
GENERATING QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES EXTENDING IT INTO
SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED IN
THE REGION WITH DIFFLUENT 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE LOCATED...THUS LOCATION
OF THE 300/700MB COUPLET AND STRONG DYNAMICS. THEREFORE...HAVE
BUMPED POPS UP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN THIS AREA NOTED
ABOVE. HOWEVER...GFS LOOKS WAY OVERDONE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF OVER
NORTHERN NYE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS NEAR AN INCH...BUT STILL
THINK RAIN WILL FALL IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EXTENDING TO
WHITE PINE AND ELKO COUNTIES. ON SATURDAY...RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES WHILE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF AXIS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN ZONES. RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EC WEAKER WITH THE DIRTY
RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FORECASTS SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ALL ZONES DRY. WILL BLEND THE
MODELS AND JUST KEEP MENTION OF POPS MAINLY ALONG THE ID-NV BORDER.
RIDGE INTENSIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.  JH

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
TUESDAY. LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT. AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES
OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR KELY AFTER 20Z. OTHERWISE DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC...KTPH AND KEKO.  JH

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.