Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 181717
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
117 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1155 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2015

The forecast is on track today and have only updated to reflect the
latest obs/trends. Temperatures are well on their way to around 80
for highs and may end up more solidly into the lower 80s if the
upper level clouds do not limit insolation too much. Should be a
very nice day, with any rain holding off until well after Midnight
across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky. A few showers
are possible around sunset along the KY/TN border.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2015

The first issue in the short term will be how much fog develops this
morning. A few areas of fog have developed this morning, mainly across
south central Kentucky, though much of it is light fog. Will
continue to monitor conditions via obs and webcams for areas of
dense fog.

Any fog that develops will dissipate shortly after sunrise. The
remainder of the day will be partly cloudy and warm for this time of
year as we remain under the influence of ridging aloft. Mainly high
clouds are expected across the region today, with a few Cu moving
into south central Kentucky late this afternoon. Temperatures will
top out some 10 degrees above normal this afternoon in the upper 70s
to around 80.

Dry weather will not last, however, as a low pressure system moves
out of the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight and across Indiana Sunday.
Rain will be on the increase through the evening hours across south
central Kentucky and spread into north central KY and southern IN
after midnight. Precipitable water values will increase to around an
inch and a half. Soundings show some elevated instability overnight
as well, so isolated to scattered thunderstorms will accompany the
showers with moderate to heavy rain at times.

For Sunday rain will be ongoing in the morning hours with the initial
wave moving off to the northeast through the morning. Winds aloft
will increase by the afternoon and sounding become unstable. A
shortwave will approach from the west. This will spark more
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms in the
afternoon could become strong with gusty winds. Additionally,
rainfall amounts of a half an inch to an inch and a half will be
possible through this period which could cause additional rises on
area rivers and ponding of water in low lying areas.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2015

Models are in fairly good agreement with the pattern across the
Midwest and Ohio Valley Sunday night, with a surface low over
northern or central IN and another low forming over AR. Both of
these lows are connected by a cool front. Moisture ahead of this
front will continue the rain chances from Sunday into Sunday night.
The actual front should push through Monday morning, but model QPF
fields indicate some light returns behind it, as trough aloft
continues over the region, so cannot rule out some light
rain/drizzle during the day Monday.

We`re still looking at a dry Monday night and Tuesday, but then the
GFS and to a lesser extent the Euro bring in some more light precip
Tuesday night/Wednesday as another cool front approaches the region.
In fact the GFS brings a series of these fronts through the end of
the week, keeping rain chances in. The Euro and GEM are not quite as
pessimistic, so will keep those chances fairly low for now. However,
they do all show a more organized system getting together over the
Central Plains on Friday, helping to strengthen a warm front
somewhere in our vicinity.

Temperatures will be around normal for this period, though any of
the cloudier days have a better chance to go below normal for highs.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 116 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2015

VFR conditions will rule to start this forecast period, along with a
steady E surface wind and some high clouds. Conditions will
deteriorate through the overnight and into Sunday as a surface low
rapidly moves north out of the lower Mississippi River Valley to
just north and west of the TAF sites, deepening as it does so. This
feature will bring plenty of moisture northward with it. Mid and
high clouds will increase later this evening into the overnight with
the best rain chances starting just before dawn at SDF/LEX.
Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible through Sunday morning
where VCTS warrants mention. BWG will see scattered rain showers as
early as just after sunset, with main rain chances in the pre-dawn
hours through late morning. Expect cigs/vis below fuel alternate at
times during the heaviest rain chances.

East winds today will slowly veer around to SE through the night and
then southerly or south southwesterly on Sunday, increasing in
magnitude.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......BJS




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