Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 052016
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
316 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE/ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE NEAR TERM. THIS WILL
KEEP A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW GOING ACROSS ARKANSAS...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALSO
SLOWLY CLIMB.

MEANWHILE...A FRONT WILL WOBBLE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTLY HEADING TO THE EAST
BECAUSE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE FRONT WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE EACH DAY.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL FINALLY GET HERE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SW OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGH AS A RESULT...THOUGH WILL
DEPENDING ON WHEN ANY DISTURBANCES LIFT NE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND FOR SUN AND INTO EARLY MON...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND NE. BY LATER
ON MON...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH SUN...THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW DEG COOLER IF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WERE TO PERSIST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
BEHIND THIS FRONT BY NEXT TUE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  82  63  82 /  10  10  10  20
CAMDEN AR         61  83  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       61  78  60  80 /  20  30  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  82  64  82 /  20  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  61  83  64  84 /  10  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     61  83  65  84 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  79  64  81 /  20  20  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  79  61  81 /  10  20  10  30
NEWPORT AR        61  83  63  83 /   0  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     61  83  64  84 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   61  81  62  83 /  20  20  10  30
SEARCY AR         59  82  62  83 /  10  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      61  82  64  84 /  10  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...62





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