Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 260815
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
415 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES EARLY THIS MORNING INCLUDE A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH
OF THE REGION TODAY AND A RIDGE AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS DATE WITH THE
LOWER 90S TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO
AREAS AND NEAR THE MID 90S IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN THE HEAT INDEX RANGING FROM AROUND 100 TO 104 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF AND MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HAZY SKIES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE 00Z GFS AROUND
00Z ON TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND BY TUESDAY 18Z A DEEP
SURFACE LOW WAS FORECAST IN THE EASTERN GULF BUT COULD BE A
RESULT OF THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NEITHER THE SREF OR THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL HAD THIS FEATURE. BUT PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE IN BASIC
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT SREF AND 00Z ECMWF DEPICTING DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY GUIDANCE INDICATES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING TO NEAR NORTH FLORIDA WITH
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE CONTINUING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A GRADUAL DRYING TREND
IS FORECAST WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH...BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
TODAY WITH WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS GENERALLY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE EXCEPT FOR THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE 15 TO 20 KNOTS IS FORECAST WITH A
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH A COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  76  88  72 /  20  20  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  95  78  90  77 /  10  10  40  30
MIAMI            95  78  91  76 /  10  10  40  30
NAPLES           89  79  91  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD


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