Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 041719
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
119 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS WEDNESDAY AND
LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE
SEA HAS DEVELOPED AND IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND WITH SOME
MODERATE CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF IT. THE SEA BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE INLAND REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE/SHEAR AXIS WAS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TODAY AND COULD AGITATE THE CUMULUS INTO SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON PER 00Z NSSL WRF. WITH THE OVERALL
MOISTURE PROFILE RATHER DRY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP PRECIPITATION
OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WILL UPDATE IF
NEEDED. WITH TEMPS STARTING OUT A FEW DEGS WARMER THIS MORNING
THAN 24 HOURS AGO...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGS WARMER
THIS AFTN GIVEN SIMILAR LOW LVL THICKNESSES...THUS PREVIOUS FCST
ON TRACK AND IN LINE WITH MOS BLEND OF LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID-UPR
70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT. PRES GRAD WILL BE TIGHTENED A BIT BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH
AND WEAK LEE TROFFING...RESULTING IN LIMITED DECOUPLING AND WARMER
MIN TEMPS...LOW-MID 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MON...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO START...THEN POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SW ATLANTIC TO AFFECT THE AREA AFTER MID WEEK.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES REMAINS STATIC OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND CONTINUES RIDGING INTO THE SE CONUS WITH HIGHS AGAIN
GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S INLAND TO 70S BEACHES. LOW DEWPOINT
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AND WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
VARIATION. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60
BEACHES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON WILL DROP INTO THE
30-35 PERCENTILE RANGE THOUGH WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
PROHIBIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MED AND LONG RANGE MODEL SUITE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WITH A
GENERAL DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CANADA THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THIS WILL
PREVENT MUCH MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRES AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
04/00Z NCEP SPAGHETTI`S ALL DEVELOPING LOW PRES THOUGH BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WITH PLACEMENT OF THE LOW BY THURSDAY...WITH OPERATIONAL
GFS BRINGING THE LOW CENTER ASHORE IN SC...THOUGH MANY OF ENSEMBLE
SOLNS KEEP THE LOW OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. CMC BRINGS THE LOW
ASHORE IN SE NC...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED A CMC/GFS/ECM BLEND FOR WINDS
WHICH WOULD PREVAIL FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD
GENERALLY 10-20 KTS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO GRADIENT BETWEEN
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRES AND APPROACHING LOW. HAVE INC POPS A
BIT ALONG THE COAST WITH 40-50 POPS THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A
FASTER NAM/CMC SOLN WOULD BRING PRECIP INTO THE AREA A BIT
EARLIER...AS EARLY AS THUR MORNING. AT LEAST INDIRECT COASTAL
IMPACTS COULD BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK (HIGH
SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS). A TRACK OF THE LOW
COMING ONSHORE OR NEAR THE COAST WOULD EXACERBATE THESE IMPACTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE LOW
PRES AREA POSSIBLY STILL IN THE VCNTY. WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
VALS AND STILL HIGH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
SUMMERY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER PRODUCING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH BASED CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY DURING
DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE FOG OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MON...VFR CONDITIONS AS DRY HIGH PRES WILL BE IN
CONTROL TUE AND WED. APPROACHING LOW PRES FROM THE SOUTH MAY
PRODUCE LOWERED CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS THUR AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. WEAK HIGH
PRES OVER AREA THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE E THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH PRES GRAD TIGHTENING A BIT WITH LEE TROFFING INLAND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT W-SW WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING S-SW THIS
AFTN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT N OF OREGON INLET LATE
AFTN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WW3 AND LOCAL NWPS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH PREVIUOS FCST SEAS OF
2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 4 AM MON...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET.

THE FORECAST MID TO LATE WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DUE TO CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODELS
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM, THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST HAS BELOW
NORMAL CONFIDENCE. WILL RELY ON CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND MODEL BLENDS TO FORECAST WINDS AND SEAS WED THROUGH
FRIDAY. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS BRING THE LOW PRES SYSTEM ASHORE
IN SC OR SE NC...THOUGH SOME OF THEM KEEP THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE
NC WATERS. WILL CONTINUE TO FCST EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
10-20 KT WED INTO THUR...BECOMING SOUTH ON FRIDAY. AN OFFSHORE
TRACK WOULD KEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS HOWEVER. NWPS AND
WAVEWATCH IV HAVE SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET THUR INTO FRI WITH
THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRES AND
APPROACHING LOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/JBM/TL



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