Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMLB 051338
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
937 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST LIFTING NORTH TODAY...
...CONTINUED POOR TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS...

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID-UPPER LEVEL ENERGY HAS INDUCED AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND WITH THE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS AGAIN TODAY AND WILL PROVIDE ECFL WITH
BREEZY/GUSTY ENE/E WINDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHTER THIS
EVENING AND BACK TO THE NE/NNE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD.

AS MOISTURE INCREASES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH (50-60 PERCENT)
WITH LOWER CHANCES NORTHWARD AND INLAND FROM THE COAST (30 TO 50
PERCENT). CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY FROM NEAR KMLB SOUTHWARD. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT
MAX SURFACE HEATING OVER THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH THE U70S
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST WITH MAINLY L80S INLAND. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE L/M 60S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST AROUND 70 DEGREES WHERE ONSHORE FLOW CAN PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY/GUSTY CONDS AGAIN TODAY. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH ONSHORE MOVING SHOWER
CHANCES INCREASING SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH. AN ISOLD
THUNDER CHANCE POSSIBLE FROM KMLB SOUTHWARD. ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...POOR TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR SMALL CRAFT. E/ENE WINDS WILL VEER THIS EVENING TO
NE/NNE AS A SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD EAST OF THE AREA. WITH A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WINDS SPEEDS WILL HOVER NEAR 20
KTS OFFSHORE/GULF STREAM BUT ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL AVERAGE 6-7 FT OVER THE OPEN ATLC WHERE AN SCA EXISTS AND 4-6
FT SEAS REALIZING NEAR SHORE AND NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET WHERE
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH 15 KT WINDS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-
     60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60
     NM.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.