Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 040731
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
331 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

CURRENTLY MONITORING DEVELOPING CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THIS AREA /INLAND W HALF/...WHERE TEMPS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AT 19Z THE COLD
FRONT WAS STILL TO THE W OF THE CWA...TRACKING INTO AN AREA OF
BETTER INSTABILITY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE AFTERNOON
SCATTERED/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DISRUPT ANY STRONGER LINES OF
CONVECTION THAT WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE MOVE INTO AT LEAST N UPPER MI.
SPC SLIGHT RISK REMAINS ALONG THE WI/UPPER MI BORDER. MARGINAL SHEAR
REMAINS...WITH THE BEST CAPE VALUES /AROUND 1K J/KG/ ALONG AND S OF
THE WI BORDER. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS INTO THE E THIRD OF THE CWA
BY 06Z MONDAY...WITH QUICKLY DIMINISHING POPS.

PLENTY OF DRY AIR EXPECTED OVER THE W MONDAY. COLDER AIR MOVING IN
WILL MEAN HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70...WARMEST S CENTRAL. RH VALUES
WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 20 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI AHEAD
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY
SKIES...THOUGH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY FILTER IN THE FROM SE DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWN A
LITTLE BIT ON THE QPF FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED ALONG AN 850 HPA
WARM FRONT/300-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT. WITH STOUT MID-LEVEL RIDGING
MOVING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND OVERALL DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINING CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
CWA...KEPT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEST HALF. PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISH TO LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST WED NIGHT AS THE
LOW-LEVEL WAA EXITS TO THE NE AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WELL SW OF THE
REGION STRUGGLES TO WORK INTO THE RIDGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DEEP TROUGHING MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NW
LATE TODAY WILL HELP KICK A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW ACROSS
THE SW STATES BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL CONSOLIDATE A BROAD SFC LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES ON WED. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NNE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE BEGINNING TO TURN EASTWARD OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW WELL THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
CAN ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN...WITH THE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY
FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE CANADIAN GEM IS QUITE SLOW...SENDING
THE TROUGH WELL NORTH AND WASHING OUT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA
ON SATURDAY. THE GFS FALLS BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BUT LEANS
TOWARD THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL ENERGY TO CHIP
AWAY AT THE RIDGE...BUT LIKELY NOT AS FAST AS IS PROGGED BY THE
ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THAT OF
THE GFS.

WITH ALL THAT TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD AS FORCING FROM THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE WORKS OVER THE CWA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ENDS CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP ON SATURDAY...A LARGE
PORTION OF THE MAIN WESTERN TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA
FOR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY
HI PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS. THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AFTER
SUNRISE INTO THE EARLY AFTN UNDER THE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE
INCOMING HI AND DEPARTING COLD FNT...BUT WINDS SHOULD TREND LIGHTER
TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WEAKER GRADIENT AS
WELL AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
SHOULD BE AROUND 25KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A LOW OVER S HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE INTO FAR N QUEBEC TONIGHT AND DRAG
A TROUGH/COLD FRONT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG. FOG WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER LAKES FROM THE W-NW
ON MONDAY. EXPECT THIS HIGH TO DRIFT INTO SE ONTARIO LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NW
ONTARI...AND A LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS. A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER EMERGING FROM THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE N PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE ONTARIO HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO
QUEBEC. THE LOW WILL DRAG A TROUGHACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF



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