Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 191459
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1059 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND SKY GRIDS FOLLOWING THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK. SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
THIN THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE TO THE
EAST. A SUNNY SKY CONDITION IS FORECAST OVERALL TODAY. THE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE CENTER OF
SFC HIGH PRES OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL DROP OVER CAPE COD BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY...AND THEN CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST AND
OFFSHORE TOWARDS THIS EVENING.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL COMPARED TO SATURDAY...
GENERALLY TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS.
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
CT...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW 60S...AND
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE COASTS...AS OCEAN TEMPS
ARE ONLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...
SFC LOW PRES WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...AND A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LIKELY
POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES AND WILL KEEP NEW LONDON COUNTY AND
EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY MAINLY DRY FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT THROUGH WITH THE WARM
FRONT...AND THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE PRECIPITATION WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL CT ON
MONDAY...WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
35 MPH. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN SHOULD PUSH EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES THEN PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TSTMS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH A FEW H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS THE REGION DRY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND PASSES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CHANCE SHOWERS...PRIMARILY
FOR LATE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE WPC/GMOS
BLEND FOR HIGHS...MORE SO OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SW
FLOW WON`T ADVECT COOLER AIR FROM THE WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE PERIOD
COULD BE DRY. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER
LOW/COLD POOL. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMALS...BUT AT LEAST IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z. MVFR TO IFR HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP OVER KSWF AND CITY TERMINALS FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY IN THE TAFS OVERNIGHT BY 3-4 HOURS OR SO. CONFIDENCE
CURRENTLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CHANGE TAFS...BUT THIS ADJUSTMENT
COULD BE MADE WITH 18Z TAFS.

WIND MAINLY E-SE...EXCEPT NE KLGA/KISP/KSWF TO START. ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD BECOME ESE-SE AT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN BACK TO THE ESE-E THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW
KNOTS INCREASE IN SPEED. WINDS INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
6Z TO 15-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT PROBABLE. STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW STRONG GUSTS WILL END UP BEING AND WHAT TIME
THEY WILL BEGIN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. LLWS. E-SE WINDS 15-25KT LIKELY
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY NIGHT. IFR OR LOWER PROBABLE. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. W-SW WINDS GUSTS 15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW- WSW WINGS G20-25KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. W
WINGS G20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN/NY
HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
OCEAN SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5-7 FT DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY...WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-30 KT...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS...AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A GALE WATCH TO BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT AND LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES TO THE EAST. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING...AND
THEN TO THE NW LATE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR A PORTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...A W TO SW FLOW
COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SEAS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 5
FT ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS....THEN WINDS PICK UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON ALL
OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS POSSIBLY THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE
MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING
HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF
A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS
LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS/JC
NEAR TERM...DS/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC/PW
AVIATION...MALOIT/JC
MARINE...MPS/JC
HYDROLOGY...MPS/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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