Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KOUN 210229
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
929 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INSTABILITY EAST OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
MAY RESULT IN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS COME WAY DOWN OVER THE PAST HOUR.
WILL ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
CURRENT RAIN AND MODEL OUTPUT. EXPECT SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED WITH LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE E
TONIGHT...CAUSING LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN S/SE...THEN S/SW BY
MIDMORNING TOMORROW. TSRA OVER E NM AND THE W TX PANHANDLE WILL
MOVE E THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
WNW FLOW ALOFT. AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS...SCT TSRA WILL
BECOME SCT SHRA...PROBABLY BEFORE REACHING THE I-35 AREA. EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
RAIN...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE COMING WEEK WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS KEPT US RATHER COOL AND
QUIET TODAY...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS WE HEAD
FURTHER INTO THE WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HAVE RESUMED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW MODEST INSTABILITY TO BUILD
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. AN APPROACHING COMPACT
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AND MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS...PROPAGATING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS COMPLEX MAY RESULT IN
SPORADIC LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND WARM
ADVECTION. WEDNESDAYS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY
WHAT HAPPENS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE LIMITED MUCH OF THE DAY IF THE
MORNING COMPLEX CAN DRIVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD...RESULTING IN A RAIN COOLED AND STABLE AIRMASS. AS WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES ATOP THIS BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL
DURING THIS TIME...SO IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO CHECK FORECASTS
FREQUENTLY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS...AT LEAST
SPOTTY SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO EXIST IN AREAS WHERE GREATER
INSTABILITY CAN BUILD...AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR.

FRIDAY MAY HOLD THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
WEEK...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE TO BELIEVE. THE GFS
WOULD INDICATE A RAPID DRYLINE SURGE...DRY SLOTTING MUCH OF THE
REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...AND RESULTING IN THE
GREATER SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THE EUROPEAN...HOWEVER...SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND DRYLINE...AND WOULD FAVOR A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA DOWN
THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...AND INTO NORTH
TEXAS. EVERYONE WHO IS ANYONE SHOULD PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
FRIDAY AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA BECOME AVAILABLE...AND THE
SITUATION BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SETTLE A BIT BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  47  72  54  72 /  40  20  30  50
HOBART OK         45  75  55  74 /  30  10  40  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  76  60  78 /  10  20  30  40
GAGE OK           40  74  52  68 /  30  10  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     44  73  52  67 /  20  20  20  40
DURANT OK         47  71  57  74 /  10  30  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.