Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 040639
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
239 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY...ALLOWING A FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER NIGHT. FRONT THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE HEIGHTS ALOFT RISING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT THERE
WILL ALSO BE A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALLOWS SOME RETURN FLOW. FOR TODAY...THESE
RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...BRINGING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE
THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS WHERE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE
AVAILABLE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION IN A RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...WILL PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW...REACHING INTO
THE LOWER TO A FEW MID 80S IN THE LOW LANDS.

FOR TONIGHT...ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST TO
EAST...AND BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME MODELS ARE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT SOUTHEAST ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER SUPPORT REMAINING TO THE NORTH ALONG
WITH THE FRONT...AND CORFIDI VECTORS FOR STORM MOTION BEING WEAK
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COMPONENT SOUTH OF EAST...WILL CONFINE POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY IN THE FAR NORTH LATER
TONIGHT.

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER IS MARGINAL AND WILL
OMIT FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTROLS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

WARM FRONT WILL OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA
BOUNDARY WITH PBZ THROUGH MID WEEK WHICH WILL DICTATE THE CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CONSISTENCY WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR DAYS 2 AND 3 WITH HIGH CHANCE VALUES OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. ALSO KEEPING POPS IN
THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE REGIONS IN OUR EASTERN HIGHLANDS.

CONVECTION MAY OR MAY NOT INITIATE IN OUR CWA...BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VECTORS INDICATE STORMS WILL ADVECT INTO OUR AREA ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS IS TRUE FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SURFACE FLOW THURSDAY...AND HAVE ONLY
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

SPC KEEPS ANY RISKS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WELL NORTH AND WEST FOR THE
CWA.

IN THE MEANT TIE...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CREEP UPWARDS...WITH THE
LOWLANDS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT DROP
OUT OF THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS.  A FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.  THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA.  THIS WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE
 SHOULD BE IN CONTROL.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MONDAY THRU 06Z TUESDAY...
VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY SCATTERED HIGHER BASED CU THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A STRAY MOUNTAIN SHOWER POSSIBLE. NO THUNDER.
A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT WILL BEING VFR
CEILINGS 5000-8000 FEET IN THE NORTH...WITH POSSIBLY A SHOWER...
AFFECTING PKB AND CKB. OTHERWISE...SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 05/04/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV







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