Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTFX 040232
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
832 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...

LOWERED POPS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...HOWEVER KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE MONTANA/IDAHO BORDER. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH DRY CONDITIONS...LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MLV

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 0000Z.
DESPITE SOME SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT TAF LOCATIONS. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE PLAINS DRY.
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EVENING THUNDERSTORM ALIVE. AS A
STRONG UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE WEST COAST MONDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST ALLOWING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY FORM OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
NORTH AND EAST AS FAR AS THE LITTLE BELT MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER TROF
MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THE RESULTING
DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AN AREAL COVERAGE GREATER THAN MONDAY`S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL REMAIN SOME 12 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN TIMING, LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
REMAINS LOWER THAN I WOULD PREFER. MAIN PLAYER IN THE FORECAST
EVOLUTION IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BETWEEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM THEN EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND
MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THIS
PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED SPRING
WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD. AM CONTINUING TO BROAD-BRUSH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE
IN ANY TYPE OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN REMAINS ELUSIVE. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  76  45  76 /   0  10  10  30
CTB  31  72  40  70 /   0  10  10  20
HLN  39  77  44  76 /  10  10  10  30
BZN  37  73  42  73 /  10  20  10  30
WEY  27  68  34  68 /  20  30  20  30
DLN  38  74  43  71 /  10  20  20  30
HVR  34  76  41  79 /   0  10  10  30
LWT  37  73  45  75 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.