Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5
000
FGUS74 KSHV 161425
ESFSHV
ARC003-027-139-TXC001-005-073-225-347-373-401-405-419-455-457-
LAC015-119-170825-


PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
925 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015


...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range
probabilistic outlook for the Sabine River basin of East Texas...


In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during
the next 90 days.  For example...the Sabine River near Mineola
Texas flood stage is 14 feet.  There is a 50 percent chance the
Sabine River will rise above 16.2 feet during the next 90 days.


        Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
               valid for April 16 - July 16 2015


     Location      FS  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
------------------ --  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---

Lake Fork Creek
 Quitman 4S        16  4.4  6.1  7.7  9.4 12.1 14.9 16.0 16.7 17.8
Sabine River
 Mineola 4S        14 10.3 12.7 14.1 15.2 16.2 17.2 17.5 18.2 18.7
 Gladewater 3WSW   26 13.6 13.9 15.6 17.3 23.0 26.9 29.9 33.0 34.1
 Longview          25 14.7 14.7 15.0 18.8 22.2 24.6 27.4 29.7 30.5
 Beckville 8NE     26 17.0 17.0 17.0 18.8 23.3 25.2 28.0 28.6 29.3
 Logansport        28 25.7 25.7 25.7 26.6 28.4 29.5 30.4 31.8 34.9
Big Sandy Creek
 Big Sandy 4NE     17  7.8  9.3 10.4 11.1 11.8 12.7 13.8 14.8 17.2
Rabbit Creek
 Kilgore           10  5.8  6.1  7.0  9.1 10.0 10.3 11.4 12.1 13.6


 Location     90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%
 ----------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Lk Cherokee  280.2 280.2 280.2 280.3 280.4 280.5 280.7 281.2 281.5
Lk Martin    306.1 306.1 306.2 306.3 306.4 306.4 306.8 307.1 307.9
Lk Murvaul   266.1 266.1 266.1 266.2 266.3 266.4 266.9 267.8 269.1


This long range probabilistic outlook uses probabilities computed
using multiple scenarios from 60 years of historical climatological
and stream flow data.  These probabilities also account for the
current river flows and soil moisture conditions.  By providing the
complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk
associated with long range planning decisions can be determined.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the
internet at this URL:  http://ahps.srh.weather.gov/index.php?wfo=shv
(internet address URL is all lower case).

Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued during the third
Thursday of every month.

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.