Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Missouri Basin, Pleasant Hill

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                       SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
                      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
                 MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
                         PLEASANT HILL, MO
                            MAR 4, 2015


NARRATIVE PART 1 OF 1

ATTN WFO`S SERVED BY MBRFC.

THIS OUTLOOK IS NOT FOR PUBLIC RELEASE UNTIL WEDNESDAY,
MARCH 4, 2015.

THIS SPRING OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER DRAINAGE WHICH
INCLUDES RIVERS IN MONTANA, WYOMING, COLORADO, NORTH AND SOUTH
DAKOTA, NEBRASKA, KANSAS, IOWA, MINNESOTA AND MISSOURI.


   SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK


GENERALLY SPEAKING, FLOOD RISK THIS SPRING ACROSS THE MISSOURI
BASIN CAN BE CATEGORIZED AS BEING BELOW NORMAL. HAVING A BELOW
NORMAL RISK FOR FLOODING DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OR
EVEN LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING.  AREAS HAVING A LESS THAN NORMAL
RISK FOR FLOODING CAN STILL BE PROJECTED TO FLOOD, ALBEIT AT A
DIMINISHED RISK AS COMPARED TO NORMAL.

A NEAR AVERAGE SNOWPACK EXISTS IN THE MOUNTAINOUS WEST. PLAINS
SNOWPACK, THOUGH WIDESPREAD, IS QUITE SHALLOW.  FROZEN GROUND
CONDITIONS, THOUGH NOT DEEPLY ENTRENCHED, EXTEND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN. ALTHOUGH NEAR SURFACE SOILS APPEAR
TO BE WETTER THAN NORMAL OVER LARGE AREAS OF THE BASIN, DEEPER
SOILS ARE BELIEVED TO BE DRYER THAN NORMAL.  THE CURRENT
SNOWPACK CONDITION, THE EXISTENCE OF DRYER THAN NORMAL
SUBSURFACE SOILS, AND A SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED FROZEN GROUND
EFFECT, COMBINE TO MAKE THE OCCURRENCE OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING EITHER IN THE MOUNTAINOUS WEST OR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS UNLIKELY. WITH RARE EXCEPTION, NO NWS FORECAST LOCATION
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS OF THE MISSOURI BASIN HAS A 50% OR
GREATER PROBABILITY OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE DURING THE NEXT 90
DAYS.

SPRING FLOODING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE BASIN IS DUE
PRIMARILY TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED
WITHIN THE MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER BASIN AND ALONG STRANGER
CREEK IN EASTERN KANSAS, AND WITHIN THE GRAND AND OSAGE RIVER
BASINS IN THE STATE OF MISSOURI.  A FEW OF THE SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES WITHIN THE STATE OF MISSOURI WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING THIS SPRING.  MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE BIG BLUE RIVER BASIN IN KANSAS, AND ALONG
THE CHARITON AND PLATTE RIVERS IN MISSOURI. THE MISSOURI RIVER
DOWNSTREAM OF NEBRASKA CITY MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
GIVEN NORMAL SPRING TIME CONVECTION.

THIS OUTLOOK CONTAINS A GENERALIZED SUMMARY OF SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL.  ABOVE NORMAL FUTURE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COMBINED
WITH HEAVY RAINS AND RAPID MELT WILL INCREASE THE CURRENT FLOOD
POTENTIAL WHILE BELOW NORMAL FUTURE PRECIPITATION AND GRADUAL OR
INTERMITTENT FREEZING AND THAWING WILL DECREASE THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT.  IN ADDITION, WHEN MANY OF THE FROZEN
RIVERS AND STREAMS THAW, ICE JAMS CAN OCCUR CAUSING HIGHER RIVER
LEVELS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.  ICE JAM FLOODING HAS ALREADY BEEN
REPORTED THIS SEASON.  ALL REPORTS HAVE INDICATED THAT THE IMPACTS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY MINOR AND LOCALIZED IN EXTENT.  HIGH WATER
DUE TO ICE FORMATION HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG REACHES OF THE
JEFFERSON, TWO MEDICINE, AND CLARKS FORK OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVERS
IN MONTANA; AND THE NORTH PLATTE, SOUTH PLATTE, PLATTE, NORTH LOUP,
AND REPUBLICAN RIVERS IN NEBRASKA.  HIGH WATER ASSOCIATED WITH
RIVER ICE BREAKUP IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SPRING.

THESE PROJECTIONS OF RIVER STAGES AND RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE BASED
ON CURRENT OBSERVED STATES OF STREAMFLOW, SOIL MOISTURE, AND SNOW
PACK, COUPLED WITH FUTURE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE PATTERNS
AND ANTICIPATED OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC CHANGES SUCH AS RESERVOIR
RELEASES AND CANAL DIVERSIONS.  "OUTLOOKS" ARE PROVIDED FOR
LONG-RANGE (WEEKS TO MONTHS) PROJECTIONS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGICAL
PATTERNS OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE.  "FORECASTS" ARE
PROVIDED FOR SHORT-TERM (DAYS) PROJECTIONS BASED ON FUTURE
FORECASTED PATTERNS OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE.  THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THESE PRODUCTS VARIES FROM SEASON TO SEASON AND
SITE TO SITE.  IN RECENT YEARS, OUTLOOK CRESTS HAVE BEEN ABOVE
THE OBSERVED CREST ABOUT AS OFTEN AS THEY HAVE BEEN BELOW THE
OBSERVED CREST.  THE UNCERTAINTY OF FORECASTS TEND TO BE LESS
THAN THE UNCERTAINTY OF OUTLOOKS DUE TO THEIR SHORTER LEAD TIME.
USERS OF THESE PRODUCTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THEIR NEAREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR CONTINUED UPDATES OF
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WHICH CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON
FLOOD PLANNING AND FLOOD FIGHTING ACTIVITIES.

OUTLOOK NUMBERS FOR LOCATIONS NOT REPRESENTED IN AHPS PRODUCTS ARE
NOT BEING ISSUED WITH THIS TEXT PRODUCT. FOR ADDITIONAL
QUANTITATIVE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO AHPS PRODUCTS FOR
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF POTENTIAL FLOODING. REFER TO FLOOD
FORECASTS, IF ANY ARE CURRENTLY ISSUED, FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
ONGOING OR ANTICIPATED FLOODING.

THIS IS THE LAST SCHEDULED SPRING OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON. IF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OCCUR SUBSEQUENT TO THIS PRODUCT, ADDITIONAL
OUTLOOKS CAN BE RELEASED TO ADDRESS NEEDS.

ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE DAILY HYDROLOGIC
ACTIVITIES DISCUSSION, FLOOD FORECASTS FOR RIVERS NEAR OR ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE, DAILY RIVER FORECASTS, AHPS PRODUCTS AND THE MONTHLY
WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK, ALL ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPRING
OUTLOOK GRAPHICS CAN BE ACCESSED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/MBRFC/?N=NEW_OUTLOOK



   CURRENT SNOW CONDITIONS


THE CONDITIONS LISTED BELOW ARE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA
AS OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MARCH 3RD.

MONTANA AND WYOMING PLAINS

ACCORDING TO RECENT REPORTS, SNOW DEPTHS THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN PLAINS
OF MONTANA AND WYOMING RANGE UP TO 7 INCHES. WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE
GREATEST IN THE MILK RIVER BASIN WHERE MODELED VALUES ARE AS MUCH AS
2.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE IN THE PLAINS REGIONS OF THESE TWO STATES,
WATER EQUIVALENT IS GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH AND A HALF.

COLORADO PLAINS

LITTLE SNOW IS BEING REPORTED IN THE COLORADO PLAINS REGION. SOME
LOCATIONS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES ARE REPORTING UP TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. WATER EQUIVALENTS IN THE AREA ARE LESS
THAN AN INCH AND A HALF.

MOUNTAINOUS WEST

SNOWPACK CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF THE MISSOURI BASIN
CAN GENERALLY BE CATEGORIZED AS SLIGHTLY BELOW TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SWEETWATER
AND MADISON-GALLATIN WATERSHEDS IN WYOMING AND THE MADISON IN MONTANA,
NRCS IS REPORTING THAT MOST OF THE RIVER BASINS WITHIN THE RFC HAVE
SNOWPACKS IN THE RANGE OF 85-115% OF NORMAL. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS
GENERALIZATION ARE NOTABLY DRIER THAN AVERAGE WITH SNOWPACKS 70-80%
OF NORMAL.

NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA

ACCORDING TO RECENT REPORTS, SNOW DEPTHS THROUGHOUT THE TWO STATES ARE
LESS THAN HISTORICAL AVERAGES. CURRENT REPORTS INDICATE SNOW DEPTHS
THROUGHOUT THE DAKOTAS, OTHER THAN THE BLACK HILLS, TO BE LESS THAN
5 INCHES. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE LESS THAN AN INCH AND A HALF
EXCEPT IN THE UPPER JAMES RIVER BASIN IN NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE UPPER
JAMES, NOHRSC ESTIMATES SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS TO BE AS MUCH AS
3 INCHES.

MOST LOCATIONS IN THE BLACK HILLS HAVE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS THAT ARE
LESS THAN THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE. SNOW DEPTHS ARE BEING REPORTED UP TO
27 INCHES AND WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE UP TO 6.5 INCHES, WHICH IS
BETWEEN 60-90% OF THE AVERAGE FOR THESE SNOW COURSES.

IOWA

LITTLE SNOW IS BEING REPORTED IN WESTERN IOWA. A FEW ISOLATED STATIONS
HAVE REPORTED UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. MODELED SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT IS LESS THAN AN INCH.

NEBRASKA AND KANSAS

MOST OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS IS REPORTING NO SNOW ON THE GROUND. THE
EXCEPTION TO THAT WOULD BE FAR EASTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLE OF
NEBRASKA. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS IN THE TWO STATES DOES NOT EXCEED
ONE AND A HALF INCHES AND SNOW DEPTHS REPORTS ARE 4 INCHES OR LESS.

MISSOURI

THIS WEEKEND`S STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
MISSOURI LEFT AS MUCH SNOW ON THE GROUND AS NEARLY ANYWHERE IN THE
BASIN`S PLAINS. GENERALLY, SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO
THE SOUTH. VERY LITTLE SNOW IS CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED IN NORTHERN
MISSOURI. REPORTS OF SNOW DEPTHS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE BEING SENT IN
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI LOCATIONS. WATER EQUIVALENTS IN THE AREA
RANGE UP TO 2 INCHES.


   CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS

GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE SHALLOW SURFACE SOILS OF THE BASIN RANGE FROM
SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN NORMAL TO NORMAL. WHILE MODEL STATES INDICATE THE
SHALLOW SURFACE SOILS AS BEING CLOSE TO SATURATED IN MANY AREAS OF THE
BASIN, DEEPER SOILS ARE BELIEVED TO BE DRYER THAN NORMAL. IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN AUTUMN RAINS AND MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
WINTER PRECIPITATION HAVE PROVIDED SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO THE REGION
SO AS TO ALLEVIATE ANY SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT CONCERNS IN THE
SHORT-TERM. THE NORTH AMERICAN DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS AS BEING ABNORMALLY DRY IN THE
SHORT-TERM. CURRENTLY, THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS NOT UNDER ANY
DROUGHT WARNINGS. ISOLATED FROST DEPTH REPORTS SUGGEST THAT SOILS IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN HAVE FROST PENETRATION RANGING FROM
1-2.5 FEET. LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN STATES ARE REPORTING FROST
DEPTHS OF LESS THAN A FOOT.


   CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS

THE MAJORITY OF THE RIVERS IN THE NORTHERN THREE-QUARTERS OF THE BASIN
ARE STILL MOSTLY ICED OVER. RIVERS IN THE SOUTHERN STATES HAVE SOME
ICE ON THEM, HOWEVER, ARE NOT COMPLETELY FROZEN. GENERALLY, RIVER
LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN, INCLUDING MISSOURI, KANSAS
AND SOUTHERN IOWA AND NEBRASKA, ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE RIVERS NORTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL IOWA AND
NEBRASKA CURRENTLY HAVE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL STAGES.
WITH AN ANTICIPATED WARM-UP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, AND AS WE
GENERALLY PROGRESS TOWARD THE SPRING MONTHS, ICE JAM ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME MORE OF A THREAT IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN STATES.

A SUMMARY OF RIVER CONDITIONS AT SELECTED RIVER STATIONS FOR
MARCH 3RD FOLLOWS:

                                    LONG TERM     CURRENT
                                    MEAN(CFS)      (CFS)
JAMES RIVER       - HURON, SD          105           100(est)
BIG SIOUX RIVER   - AKRON, IA          695           300(est)
PLATTE RIVER      - LOUISVILLE, NE    8000          2125(est)
KANSAS RIVER      - DESOTO, KS        3040          2650(est)
GASCONADE RIVER   - JEROME, MO        2100           820
MISSOURI RIVER    - OMAHA, NE        20200         14700
MISSOURI RIVER    - RULO, NE         30900         19400
MISSOURI RIVER    - ST. JOSEPH, MO   34600         21600
MISSOURI RIVER    - WAVERLY, MO      42400         26900
MISSOURI RIVER    - HERMANN, MO      63800         36600



END MBRFC

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