Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 172032
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VALID 191200Z - 251200Z

MEANDERING...CLOSED MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW /LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKY MOUNTAINS AS OF 20 UTC FRIDAY/ WILL OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
BECOMING ENVELOPED BY A STRONGER MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS RESULTANT LOW WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK CENTERED
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH VARIOUS TROUGHS
PINWHEELING AROUND THE LOW. THIS SHOULD ACT TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN UNITED STATES RELATIVELY COOL...LIMITING THE
OVERALL FIRE-WEATHER THREAT.

AREAS OF POSSIBLE FIRE-WEATHER CONCERN INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN PLAINS ON DAY3/SUNDAY AS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW. DESPITE THE STRONG
WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS...FIRE-WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS AS THE RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS ACTS TO KEEP
RELATIVE-HUMIDITY VALUES FROM FALLING INTO THE TEENS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. SHOULD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BE GREATER...OR THE AIRMASS
DRIER...THAN EXPECTED...ELEVATED DELINEATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

LATE NEXT WEEK...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
LARGE-SCALE FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND WEST TEXAS AS A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
ACCELERATES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCES WITHIN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE MAIN SHORT-WAVE TROUGH RESULTS IN CRITICAL
PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO WARRANT DELINEATION AT THIS TIME.

..MARSH.. 04/17/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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