Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 171655
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VALID 171700Z - 181200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS FORECAST.

LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SHOW RAPID WARMING/DRYING /5F DEWPOINT REPORTED AT TUCUMCARI/. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON...YIELDING ELEVATED-TO-CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN
TEXAS...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...AND THE FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.

FARTHER NORTH...ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND FAR
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA... SURFACE-WIND SPEEDS ARE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING SURFACE-PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS THE DRY
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WARM...RELATIVE-HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE TEENS...RESULTING IN ELEVATED-TO-LOCALLY CRITICAL
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS.

PLEASE READ THE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST REASONING.

..MARSH.. 04/17/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0332 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT E/NE FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TOWARDS ERN CO TODAY. MEANWHILE...STRONGER FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN STREAM SHOULD REMAIN RELEGATED TO AREAS NEAR
THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WITHIN THIS STREAM...A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TOWARDS SRN ONTARIO AND
THE GREAT LAKES.

THE RESULTANT SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
NRN ND/MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND FAR SERN CO/SWRN
KS...WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH.

...PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND SRN NM...
ENHANCED W/SWLY FLOW ALOFT...TO THE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID/UPPER LOW...WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE REGION TODAY. WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES...DEEP DIURNAL MIXING
WILL PROMOTE MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 20-25
MPH /WITH HIGHER GUSTS/ ACROSS THE WRN TX PANHANDLE AND ERN NM.
ADDITIONALLY...EFFICIENT DRYING OF THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN
WILL LEAD TO RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS A SIMILAR
AREA...AS REGIONAL 00Z RAOBS DEPICT A DRY UPSTREAM AIR MASS.
THEREFORE...CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE
ACHIEVED OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER...COOLER CONDITIONS /TEMPS IN THE
40S-50S/ ACROSS CNTRL NM...AND PRIOR WETTING RAINS/MORE MARGINAL
CONDITIONS TO THE EAST/NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES AND SERN
CO/SWRN KS...WILL LIKELY KEEP THE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WX THREAT
CONFINED TO A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS FAR ERN NM AND THE FAR WRN TX
PANHANDLE. ADDITIONALLY...THE ELEVATED AREA WAS EXTENDED S/W TO
INCLUDE MUCH OF SRN NM...WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH 15-20
MPH...WITH RH VALUES BELOW 10-15 PERCENT...SUPPORTING
ELEVATED/LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

...PORTIONS OF NERN ND/NRN MN...
AN ELEVATED AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED...AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH IN INCREASED FIRE WX CONCERNS. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BYPASSES THE REGION TODAY...AN APPROACHING FRONT/TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...LEADING TO INCREASING W/SWLY
FLOW. FURTHERMORE...DIURNAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT DEEPER
MIXING...WHICH WILL ENABLE TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
/MAINTAINED BY A JET MAXIMUM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
PERTURBATION/ TO THE SFC. AS SUCH...SUSTAINED W/SW WINDS AROUND
15-20 MPH ARE FORECAST. WITH A DRY AIR MASS ESTABLISHED...DEEP
MIXING WILL PROMOTE RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 20-25 PERCENT. IN
COMBINATION WITH RECEPTIVE FINE FUELS...THESE METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED THREAT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FURTHER OUT OF THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT COOLING TEMPS WILL LEAD
TO SLOWLY INCREASING RH VALUES. THEREFORE...WHILE LOCALLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A CRITICAL
DELINEATION AT THIS TIME.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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