Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FNUS51 KBTV 040841
FWFBTV

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
441 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS...

.DISCUSSION...
THE RECENT DRY SPELL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT HAS
ALLOWED FINE FUELS BELOW 2000 FEET TO BECOME VERY DRY ACCORDING
TO THE VERMONT DEPARTMENT OF FOREST...PARKS...AND RECREATION AND
THE NEW YORK STATE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION. THIS
AFTERNOON A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE...TO 6000-8000 FEET... WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-35 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND 15-20 MPH OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE DRY
FUELS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN
26-35% INCREASING THE RISK OF FIRE WEATHER FOR TODAY. THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST FROM 3-5PM WHEREAS THE LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE BETWEEN 12PM AND 4PM BEFORE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA UNDER THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. GIVEN THE ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE WEATHER ANY FIRES THAT DO
OCCUR COULD SPREAD QUICKLY AND WITH THE DRY FUELS BURN INTENSELY
BECOMING DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN.

AFTER 4PM INCREASING RH`S AND CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THE FIRE
WEATHER RISK AS MUCH NEEDED RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION BUT UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WILL BECOME SHADOWED AND LIKELY ONLY SEE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
LARGEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.10" TO 0.30" OF TOTAL RAINFALL. AS
THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING THE WINDS WILL
WEAKEN TO BELOW 10KTS AND MUCH HIGHER RH`S WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TOMORROW WE WILL SEE DRY WEATHER AGAIN BUT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGH DEW POINTS MINIMUM RH`S WILL BE
HIGHER THAN THE CRITICAL MINIMUMS FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA AND THE
MUCH NEEDED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO WORK TO MOISTEN THE ALREADY
DRY FUELS AND FURTHER ENHANCE GREEN UP.

NYZ028-035-VTZ001-002-005-009-042145-
EASTERN CLINTON-EASTERN ESSEX-GRAND ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-
WESTERN CHITTENDEN-WESTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLATTSBURGH...PORT HENRY...
TICONDEROGA...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...BURLINGTON...
MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES
441 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      TUE

CLOUD AMOUNT          MCLEAR       MCLDY        PCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)        0            50           0
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      NONE
MAX/MIN/MAX TEMP      78           54           70
20FTWND AM(MPH)       S  9 G18                  N  8 G18
20FTWND PM(MPH)       SW 13 G25    SW 10 G26    NW  8 G18
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.06         0.00
PRECIP DURATION                    2
PRECIP BEGIN                       7 PM
PRECIP END                         6 AM
MIN/MAX/MIN RH %      28           90           30
HAINES INDEX          5            5            4
LAL                   1            1            1
MIXING HGT            11920                     8040
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 21                     NW 13
VENTILATION RATE      245220                    93310

REMARKS...NONE.

$$

VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-042145-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...
STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...
ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
441 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      TUE

CLOUD AMOUNT          MCLEAR       MCLDY        PCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)        10           50           20
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS
MAX/MIN/MAX TEMP      76           51           68
20FTWND AM(MPH)       SW  7 G18                 NW  9 G21
20FTWND PM(MPH)       SW 13 G26    SW 10 G24    NW  9 G28
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.08         0.02
PRECIP DURATION       1            2            0
PRECIP BEGIN          9 AM         6 PM         CONTINUING
PRECIP END            5 PM         CONTINUING   8 AM
MIN/MAX/MIN RH %      27           95           30
HAINES INDEX          5            5            4
LAL                   1            1            1
MIXING HGT            11410                     7670
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 25                     NW 15
VENTILATION RATE      251060                    117820

REMARKS...NONE.

$$

VTZ011-012-019-042145-
WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN RUTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...
WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON
441 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      TUE

CLOUD AMOUNT          MCLEAR       PCLDY        PCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)        0            50           30
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      SHOWERS
MAX/MIN/MAX TEMP      78           54           71
20FTWND AM(MPH)       SW  6                     NW  8 G21
20FTWND PM(MPH)       SW 12 G26    SW 10 G24    NW  7 G25
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.06         0.03
PRECIP DURATION                    2            1
PRECIP BEGIN                       7 PM         CONTINUING
PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   1 PM
MIN/MAX/MIN RH %      27           89           31
HAINES INDEX          5            5            4
LAL                   1            1            1
MIXING HGT            10930                     8240
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 24                     NW 12
VENTILATION RATE      243020                    101400

REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ026-027-087-042145-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...OGDENSBURG...
POTSDAM...GOUVERNEUR
441 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      TUE

CLOUD AMOUNT          MCLEAR       MCLDY        PCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)        20           60           0
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE
MAX/MIN/MAX TEMP      77           50           69
20FTWND AM(MPH)       SW 10 G24                 N  6
20FTWND PM(MPH)       SW 18 G35    SW 14 G33    NW  6
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.09         0.00
PRECIP DURATION       1            5
PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   6 AM
MIN/MAX/MIN RH %      30           99           32
HAINES INDEX          5            4            5
LAL                   1            1            1
MIXING HGT            9750                      6670
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 33                     NW  8
VENTILATION RATE      289820                    70940

REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ029>031-034-042145-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...
TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID
441 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      TUE

CLOUD AMOUNT          MCLEAR       MCLDY        PCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)        20           60           20
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS
MAX/MIN/MAX TEMP      74           48           67
20FTWND AM(MPH)       SW  9 G24                 N  6 G17
20FTWND PM(MPH)       SW 16 G29    SW 14 G29    NW  7 G19
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.10         0.01
PRECIP DURATION       1            4            0
PRECIP BEGIN          9 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 AM
MIN/MAX/MIN RH %      28           100          31
HAINES INDEX          5            5            5
LAL                   1            1            1
MIXING HGT            11570                     8510
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 24                     NW 12
VENTILATION RATE      244820                    104990

REMARKS...NONE.

$$

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND
70. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.  PRECIPITATION NEAR NORMAL.

$$



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