Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG CREEK PRESCRIBED FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
344 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON APRIL 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.  THERE WILL BE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
SMOKE DISPERSAL THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
EXCELLENT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-53.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-26%.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    WEST/SOUTHWEST 8-11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1200.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 10 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 10700-11700 FT
                    AGL AFTER 1200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
                    SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 2400 THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SNOW SHOWERS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-35.
MAX HUMIDITY........67-70%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
                    UNTIL 2100...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400.
CWR.................10 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT LATE IN THE
                    EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10100 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL
                    AFTER 0500.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15-25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 2000. POOR AFTER 2300.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-49.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-39%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8-13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 25 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 7500-8500 FT AGL
                    AFTER 1200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15-25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BIG CREEK PRESCRIBED FIRE.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

04/23-03 30  6  1 32 72 SSW  7  7 3 1 WSW 10   751  SW 12  7691 P
04/23-04 25  6  1 32 73 SSW  6  6 3 1 WSW 13   699  SW 13  7530 P
04/23-05 20  6  1 32 75 SSW  6  6 3 1 WSW 15   647  SW 13  7313 P
04/23-06 17  4  1 32 72 SSW  7  7 3 1 WSW 17   595 WSW 14  7041 P
04/23-07 15  4  1 34 69 SSW  7  7 3 1 WSW 18  1802 WSW 14 21693 P
04/23-08 12  4  1 38 62  SW  6  6 3 1   W 21  3010 WSW 14 36823 P
04/23-09 26  4  1 42 55  SW  6  6 3 1   W 22  4217   W 14 52430  F
04/23-10 41  4  1 46 46  SW  6  6 3 1   W 21  6681 WSW 15 84290   G
04/23-11 55 10  2 50 37  SW  7  7 3 1 WSW 20  9145 WSW 15117056    V
04/23-12 61 10  2 53 31  SW  8 13 3 2 WSW 18 11609  SW 15150728     E
04/23-13 67 32 11 54 28  SW  9 16 3 4 WSW 20 11645  SW 16165126     E
04/23-14 73 32 11 54 28  SW 12 18 3 4 WSW 20 11680  SW 17179609     E
04/23-15 72 31 10 54 27  SW 13 21 3 4 WSW 20 11716  SW 20194178     E
04/23-16 70 31 10 53 29  SW 13 21 3 4 WSW 21 11194 WSW 20188888     E
04/23-17 68 31 10 53 29 WSW 13 20 3 4 WSW 22 10671 WSW 20183284     E
04/23-18 71 28  8 51 32 WSW 12 18 3 2 WSW 23 10149 WSW 20177364     E
04/23-19 71 23  5 48 35 WSW 10 16 3 2 WSW 24  8259 WSW 22153112     E
04/23-20 71 18  4 45 38  SW  8 14 3 2   W 26  6369 WSW 23124842    V
04/23-21 71 17  3 42 43  SW  7  7 3 2   W 29  4479   W 24 92555   G
04/23-22 71 15  3 40 47  SW  6  6 3 2   W 29  3543   W 21 62107   G
04/23-23 71 10  2 38 52  SW  6  6 3 2   W 30  2606   W 16 37526 P
04/24-00 64 10  2 37 57  SW  6  6 3 1   W 31  1670   W 13 18813 P
04/24-01 64 10  2 36 62  SW  6  6 3 1   W 32  1463   W 14 18170 P
04/24-02 64 10  2 34 71  SW  6  6 3 1   W 33  1256 WSW 16 17050 P
04/24-03 64 10  2 33 75  SW  6  6 3 1   W 35  1049 WSW 17 15452 P
04/24-04 64 10  2 31 79  SW  7  7 3 1   W 33   952 WSW 17 14292 P
04/24-05 64 10  2 30 78  SW  7  7 3 1   W 32   855   W 17 12847 P
04/24-06 73 24  5 30 75  SW  8 13 3 1   W 31   758   W 17 11398 P
04/24-07 73 24  5 33 69  SW  9 14 3 1   W 29  2145   W 20 35582 P
04/24-08 73 24  5 37 61 WSW  9 15 3 1 WNW 28  3532   W 21 64054   G
04/24-09 73 24  5 41 55 WSW 10 16 3 1 WNW 25  4919   W 23 96813   G
04/24-10 73 24  5 45 47   W 10 10 3 1 WNW 28  6094   W 22118242    V
04/24-11 73 24  5 47 42   W 12 12 3 1 WNW 29  7268   W 22139021    V
04/24-12 89 48 24 48 40   W 12 12 3 2 WNW 30  8442   W 22159152     E
04/24-13 89 48 24 49 39   W 12 12 3 2 WNW 31  8473   W 22161939     E
04/24-14 89 48 24 49 39   W 13 13 3 2   W 31  8504   W 22164742     E
04/24-15 89 48 24 48 42   W 13 13 3 2   W 32  8535   W 23167561     E
04/24-16 89 48 24 48 44   W 14 22 3 2   W 32  8034   W 23162701     E
04/24-17 89 48 24 46 47   W 15 23 3 2   W 32  7533   W 24157220     E
04/24-18 89 37 15 44 53   W 15 24 3 2   W 33  7032   W 24151118     E
04/24-19 89 37 15 42 60   W 14 22 3 2   W 29  5578   W 24119074    V
04/24-20 89 37 15 40 64 WSW 12 12 3 2 WNW 24  4124   W 24 87446   G
04/24-21 89 37 15 38 70  SW 10 10 3 2  NW 21  2670   W 24 56233  F
04/24-22 89 37 15 36 72  SW 10 10 3 2 WNW 22  2177   W 24 44835  F
04/24-23 89 37 15 35 75  SW 12 12 3 2   W 24  1684 WSW 23 33899 P
04/25-00 76 16  3 35 72  SW 12 12 3 1   W 26  1192 WSW 23 23424 P
04/25-01 76 16  3 35 75  SW 10 10 3 1   W 29  1365 WSW 22 25975 P
04/25-02 76 16  3 34 78  SW  9  9 3 1 WSW 31  1538 WSW 21 28310 P
04/25-03 76 16  3 34 82 WSW  9  9 3 1 WSW 35  1710   W 21 30431 P
04/25-04 76 16  3 32 88 WSW 10 10 3 1 WSW 33  1740   W 21 30554 P
04/25-05 76 16  3 31 92 WSW 12 12 3 1   W 33  1770   W 20 30663 P
04/25-06 79 25  5 31 88 WSW 13 13 3 1   W 33  1799   W 20 30759 P
04/25-07 79 25  5 33 78 WSW 14 14 3 1   W 30  2394   W 21 42265  F
04/25-08 79 25  5 36 67 WSW 14 22 3 1   W 28  2988   W 21 54439  F
04/25-09 79 25  5 40 57 WSW 14 22 3 1   W 24  3583 WNW 22 67282   G
04/25-10 79 25  5 43 51 WSW 14 22 3 1   W 22  4260   W 20 70540   G
04/25-11 79 25  5 46 47 WSW 13 13 3 1 WSW 20  4938   W 16 70787   G
04/25-12 86 45 22 48 46 WSW 13 13 3 2 WSW 17  5616 WSW 14 68020   G
04/25-13 86 45 22 50 42 WSW 12 12 3 2 WSW 17  6563 WSW 14 75848   G
04/25-14 86 45 22 51 41  SW 12 12 3 2  SW 17  7510  SW 13 82623   G
04/25-15 86 45 22 51 39  SW 10 10 3 2  SW 17  8458  SW 12 88344   G
04/25-16 86 45 22 51 39 SSW  9  9 3 2 SSW 15  8739 SSW 12 85992   G
04/25-17 86 45 22 49 42 SSW  9  9 3 2 SSW 14  9020   S 10 83299   G
04/25-18 92 46 23 48 44   S  8  8 3 2   S 12  9301   S 10 80266   G
04/25-19 92 46 23 46 49   S  8  8 3 2   S 14  7905   S 12 80054   G
04/25-20 92 46 23 44 55   S  8  8 3 2   S 16  6509   S 14 75660   G
04/25-21 92 46 23 42 62   S  7  7 3 2   S 18  5113 SSE 15 67085   G
04/25-22 92 46 23 40 67   S  7  7 3 2   S 22  3961   S 15 51640  F
04/25-23 92 46 23 38 70 SSE  7  7 3 2 SSW 24  2810   S 15 36392 P
04/26-00 89 43 20 37 70 SSE  7  7 3 1  SW 28  1659   S 15 21342 P
04/26-01 89 43 20 36 69 SSE  6  6 3 1  SW 30  1579   S 16 22344 P
04/26-02 89 43 20 35 72   S  6  6 3 1  SW 32  1499   S 17 23142 P
04/26-03 89 43 20 34 72   S  5  5 3 1  SW 35  1420 SSW 20 23734 P
04/26-04 89 43 20 32 78   S  5  5 3 1  SW 30  1189   S 15 15580 P
04/26-05 89 43 20 30 81   S  3  3 3 1 SSW 24   959   S 10  9093 P
04/26-06 86 55 30 29 85   S  3  3 3 1 SSW 18   728   S  7  4274 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...COOPER
REQUESTED BY...CASEY CHEESBROUGH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150423.BIGCR.01/BOU



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