Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FNUS73 KDLH 291430
FWSDLH

SPOT FORECAST FOR BACKUS FIRE 24...MNDNR FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
930 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0902 CDT ON MARCH 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WILDFIRE AREA IN
SOUTHERN CROW WING COUNTY BEFORE NOON. EXPECT AN ABRUPT WIND
SWITCH AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO THE WEST AND THEN NW. VERY
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, AND
GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH AT TIMES. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVERCAST SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE THROUGH AROUND NOON, AND
THEN DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
LATE AFTERNOON CLEARING. THE ADDITION OF THE SUNSHINE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 40S. FORTUNATELY, THIS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS IS NOT SUPER
DRY. THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER
30S...AND IT APPEARS MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THE MINIMUM RH SHOULD DROP TO ABOUT 45 PERCENT. IT
COULD BE HIGHER IF IT TAKES LONGER FOR THE CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR
THE AREA.

THE NW WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RELATIVELY QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET, BY AROUND 8 OR 9 PM, AS THE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CUTS OFF THE MIXING AND PREVENTS THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM
REACHING THE GROUND. THE WINDS SPEEDS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 MPH BY
MIDNIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE RH
SHOULD RECOVER TO ABOUT 90 PERCENT.

MONDAY LOOKS WARMER AND DRIER WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SPEEDS AROUND
5 MPH IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SSW IN
THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THE BETTER CHANCES WILL TO THE NORTH AND EAST NEAR
GRAND RAPIDS AND THE CLOQUET AREAS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL
APPROACH 60 DEGREES AND THE MINIMUM RH IS FORECAST TO REACH AROUND
40 PERCENT.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN
                    LATE IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH BECOMING
                    WEST AROUND 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 27 MPH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST 20
                    TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 38 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO AROUND 19 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 31 MPH BY AROUND 6 PM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 40 TO 45 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (69700) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (174800).

TIME (CDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
TEMP............37     40     44     46     47
RH..............85     75     58     48     45
20 FT WIND DIR..SW     W      NW     NW     NW
20 FT WIND SPD..13     18     23     24     21
20 FT WIND GUST.20     27     37     38     35

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 32.
MAX HUMIDITY........91 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 26 MPH DECREASING TO 8 TO 11 MPH EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6
                    MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 350 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (80000) DECREASING TO POOR (2250).

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
TEMP............44     41     38     35     34     33
RH..............50     61     72     80     86     90
20 FT WIND DIR..NW     NW     W      W      SW     SW
20 FT WIND SPD..16     8      5      4      3      4
20 FT WIND GUST.26     16     9      8      7      8

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 2 TO 5 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 7 TO
                    9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2000) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (77400).

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
TEMP............33     39     45     50     57     57
RH..............89     74     58     49     42     43
20 FT WIND DIR..W      S      S      S      SW     SW
20 FT WIND SPD..5      3      3      7      9      8
20 FT WIND GUST.10     6      6      14     16     10

$$
FORECASTER...GEOFF
REQUESTED BY...CURT COGAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150329.BACKU.01/DLH






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