Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 060709
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
309 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

HE MOST SIG FCST PROBLEM OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS WL CONT TO BE
THE PSBL DVLPMT OF A TROPICAL AND/OR SUBTROPICAL SFC LOW FCST BY
ALL OF THE 00Z MDLS TO AFCT THE SRN NT2 WTRS. IN RGRDS TO THE FCST
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...VS THEIR PREV RESPECTIVE RUNS THE 00Z
NAM/GFS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FCSTG THE LOW TO MOV NWD AND APRCH
THE SRN NT2 WTRS LATE TODAY/TONITE...DRIFT N INTO THE SW MOST NT2
WTRS THU INTO FRI...THEN MAKE LANDFALL FRI NITE/EARLY SAT NR THE S
CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL THE 00Z GEFS MEAN SPRTS THE 00Z GFS TRACK
AND IF ANYTHING INDICATES THAT THE 00Z GFS IS TOO SLOW TO FCST ITS
LOW TO MAKE LANDFALL BY LATE FRI. THE 00Z GLOBAL GEM AND 00Z ECMWF
FCST NRLY IDENTICAL TRACKS THAT ARE JUST E OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS
TRACK THRU FRI...BUT THEN TRACK MR SLOWLY WNW FRI NITE/SAT BEFORE
THEN MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST NR THE N AND S CAROLINA
BORDER SAT NITE/EARLY SUN. THE 00Z UKMET HAS SHIFTED ITS FCST
TRACK INCREMENTALLY FURTHER W BUT STIL REMAINS ON THE ERN MOST
SIDE OF THE MDL TRACK ENVELOPE AND AS A RESULT DOES NOT FCST ITS
LOW TO MAKE LANDFALL AT ALL AND BY LATE SUN/SUN NITE KEEPS ITS
FCST LOW JUST OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST. FOR NOW BLV THE 00Z
GEM/ECMWF TRACK LOOKS LK A RSNBL COMPROMISE BTWN THE MR WWD
NAM/GFS AND EWD UKMET. IN RGRDS TO THE FCST GRADIENTS ASCD WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AT DIFFERENT FCST TIMES ALL OF THE 00Z MDLS AT SOME
POINT FCST GALE FORCE ASCD BL WINDS...WITH THE 00Z NAM/GEM/UKMET
FCSTG THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS. AGAIN AS A COMPROMISE WULD FAVOR A
BLENDED 00Z GEM/ECMWF FCST GRADIENT. THEREFORE TO TRY TO
ASSIMILATE THIS GRADIENT PLAN ON POPULATING OUR FCST WIND GRIDS
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BL WINDS TODAY THRU SUN NITE...WITH ITS WINDS
BOOSTED UP 15-20 PERCENT ON AVERAGE THU INTO SUN NITE.

.SEAS...SINCE THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION WL BE FAVORED THRUT THE
FCST PERIOD...WL POPULATE OUR FCST WAVE GRIDS WITH ITS 00Z ECMWF
WAM FCST SEAS FOR TODAY THRU SUN NITE...WITH A SMLR 15 PERCENT ON
AVERAGE INCRS IN THESE FCST SEAS THU INTO SUN NITE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...AS THE DVLPG LOW IS FCST TO
MOV INTO THE SRN NT2 WTRS THE 00Z ETSS AND 00Z ESTOFS BOTH FCST
POSITIVE SURGES GNRLY IN THE 0.5 TO 1.5 FT RANGE TO DVLP ALONG THE
COAST FM CP HAT SWD BY TONITE INTO FRI. IF ANYTHING...THESE FCST
VALUES MAY BE TOO LOW SINCE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WL BE FAVORED.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE THU.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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