Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 280604
SWODY1
SPC AC 280603

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF
COASTAL REGION AND MUCH OF FL...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY.  ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SRN-STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS EARLY TUE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WHILE GRADUALLY EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN WAVE.  AS THIS
OCCURS...A WEAK/ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD
ACROSS THE NRN GULF...ALONG AN OUTFLOW-REINFORCED BAROCLINIC ZONE.
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THIS REGION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT --
FOCUSED INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY -- WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COASTAL STATES...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN GULF AND ADJACENT GULF COASTAL
STATES.  WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER ARE
FORECAST TO LARGELY INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL NEAR AND JUST
N OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE -- PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR OR S OF THE GULF
COAST...AND THUS SEVERE RISK SHOULD BE LARGELY LIMITED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION.

GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD SEEM MOST LIKELY S OF THE
FRONT OVER THE GULF AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA...BUT AN
EXPANDING CLUSTER OF STORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS NOW EVOLVING
OVER THE NRN GULF WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS FL EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
AS A RESULT...LIMITED DESTABILIZATION SHOULD -- SIMILAR TO AREAS
FARTHER N -- HINDER OVERALL SEVERE RISK.  THUS -- WHILE THE
STRONGEST CELLS ACROSS THE AREA MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS/HAIL
AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO...WILL CARRY ONLY MARGINAL RISK THIS
FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 04/28/2015



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