Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 302103
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
303 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO
DUE TO WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 MPH...AND HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 15
PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING.

A DRY AND MILD AIRMASS REMAINS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT A
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN LATER TUESDAY.
A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY
TUESDAY. LOOKING AT POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...RH
LEVELS DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 20 KTS...NO RED FLAG HIGHLIGHT NOW...MID
SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
WARM DAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN
COLORADO...AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS MAY BE COMING OFF THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY EVENING AFTER A WARM DAY...HOWEVER
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND AT THIS TIME.

AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PUSH
THE UPPER RIDGE EAST AND TURN FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A JET MAX PUSHING INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY THE
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL DEEPEN AND PUSH SOUTH FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE STATE BY NOON...WITH A COLD FRONT FOLLOWING
IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE...BUT WITH
THE JET POSITION...CAPE VALUES AROUND 200-500 J/KG AND SLIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH
BASED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH TERRAIN. UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...AND WITH
UPSLOPE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 9500 FT
MSL WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN LOWER TO AROUND 6500 FT BY THURSDAY
MORNING. UP TO A COUPLE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVER THE STATE THURSDAY...WITH
THE JET MAX MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. CONTINUED UPSLOPE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY FOCUS HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALONG
THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. SNOW LEVELS AT THIS POINT LOOK TO HOVER
AROUND 6000 FT...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.
WILL MAINLY KEEP A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL AS LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES
WITH MOST GUIDANCE TRENDING THIS WAY. HARD TO TELL ABOUT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...DOWNWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY WILL PUSH IN AND MOISTURE
WILL HEAD EAST WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
DECREASING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STAY COOL...IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S OVER THE PLAINS.

SATURDAY WILL SEE WARMING AND DRYING AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD...THEN ANOTHER NWPAC SYSTEM IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
START PUSHING IN. LONGER TERM MODELS HANDLE THIS LOW
DIFFERENTLY...WITH THE GFS ALLOWING IT TO PUSH IN QUICKER WHERE WE
MAY SEE MORE MOISTURE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF
IS HOLDING IT WEST LONGER...KEEPING US DRY AND WARM UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.  WINDS WILL BECOME
DRAINAGE AT AREA AIRPORTS THIS EVENING...AND LEE SURFACE TROUGH IN
EASTERN COLORADO WILL KEEP WINDS SOUTHERLY AND KDEN AND KAPA ON
TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LIKELY AT KBJC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

DRY...GUSTY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE COMBINING TO CREATE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND HUMIDITIES RECOVER. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH IT AGAIN TUESDAY AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND WINDS ON THE
PLAINS TURN SOUTHERLY. LOW HUMIDITIES ARE INDICATED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET GUSTY UNTIL THE
EVENING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH THE
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF I70...AND IN LINCOLN COUNTY. THE TIMING OF THIS COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT IF THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY COINCIDE
FOR 3 HOURS OR MORE TO MEET CRITERIA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ242-248-249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RTG
FIRE WEATHER...RTG/KRIEDERMAN


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