Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 030215
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
815 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZED. REMOVED POPS FROM THE FRONT
RANGE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. STILL LOOKS DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER NRN CO TONIGHT AS SOME MID LVL MOISTURE
IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.  WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH WIDELY SCT ACTIVITY OVER
THE PLAINS THRU THE EVENING HOURS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD END BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

ON SUN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AS A DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AFFECTS THE AREA BY LATE AFTN.  MEANWHILE A
COOL FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTN WITH SOME INCREASE
IN LOW LVL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FNT.  OVERALL WILL SEE ANOTHER CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A BETTER CHC OF STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE AFTN.  CAPES ARE ONLY FCST IN THE 500-
1000 J/KG BY THE GFS WHILE THE NAM IS MORE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE.  OVERALL SHEAR PROFILE IS WEAK SO POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX LOOKS
LOW AT THIS TIME.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL IN THE 70S ACROSS NERN
CO AS MAIN PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUN EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AT 18Z TUESDAY MIDDAY...MODELS SHOW AN
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING THIS CIRCULATION IS OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINING VERY LIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
AND WIND FIELDS KEEP EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
FOOTHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN WEAK SURFACE WINDS
ARE INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THE MODELS KEEP THE
CWA VERY MOIST ALL FIVE PERIODS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ALL
FIVE PERIODS. THERE IS SOME CAPE PROGGED SUNDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM AND MOSTLY OVER THE PLAINS. THERE IS LIMITED
CAPE FOR LATE DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIODS. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ALL FIVE
PERIODS...THE GFS SHOWING THE MOST. WILL GO WITH 30-60% POPS MOST
OF THE PERIODS...A BIT LOWER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. FOR
TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE DOWN 2-5 C FROM MONDAY`S...EVEN
A BIT LOWER OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER. ON TUESDAY...HIGHS ARE A
BIT WARMER THAN MONDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...MODELS HAVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN INCREASE IN
SPEED BY SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN COLORADO. MOISTURE DECREASES SOMEWHAT...BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH FOR 10-30% LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MOISTURE AND POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS ENDED THIS EVENING...BUT
WILL RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AFTER 21Z SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL SETTLE AT A NORMAL DRAINAGE DIRECTION BY 06Z. ON
SUNDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY 18Z.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER


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