Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 270336
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
936 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK...JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING FOR
DETAILS. RAISED POPS OVERALL FOR TONIGHT AS THERE IS A STEADY
LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN IN BETWEEN THE SHOWERS. MAIN AREA OF LIFT IS
WRAPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...BUT THE EDGE OF THIS IS MAKING
IT INTO PARK COUNTY IN WHAT IS A VERY FAVORABLE ESE FLOW. THERE
WAS A ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW THERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
BEFORE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
EAST BLOCK THE FLOW. MUCH OF THIS WAS FORECAST...BUT I ADDED A
COUPLE MORE INCHES TO THAT AREA. MEANWHILE A SECOND SHOWER BAND
HAS FORMED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THIS IS
INTENSIFYING...IT LIKELY MARKS THE EDGE OF THE STRONG CIRCULATION
AROUND THE LOW AND HAS DRIER AIR ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF IT. HRRR
CORRECTLY DEVELOPED THIS...AND KEEPS IT IN ITS PRESENT LOCATION
MOST OF THE NIGHT...THEN BRINGS IT WESTWARD ACROSS THE DENVER AREA
BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW MUCH OF IT WILL BE
LEFT...THE MOST RECENT RUN IS DISSIPATING IT AS DRY AIR COMES
UNDERNEATH IT. ALSO UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF IT WILL GET INTO THE
FOOTHILLS. BOULDER/LARIMER COUNTIES HAVE BEEN MISSING OUT THE LAST
6 HOURS...BUT A LITTLE INCREASE IN THE FLOW AND A SHIFT TO A MORE
E TO NE DIRECTION SHOULD HELP. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE WARNING UP FOR
ZONE 33 THINKING THERE WOULD BE SOME INCREASE AGAIN...IT COULD BE
HEAVY AGAIN FOR A WHILE.

SNOW LEVELS ARE DROPPING BUT VERY SLOWLY...AT SUNSET THERE WAS
SOME ACCUMULATION BETWEEN 8000 AND 9000 FEET AND THE FREEZING
LEVEL WAS 8500 FEET ON THE DENVER SOUNDING...TEMPS AT AFF/MNH ARE
AROUND 36. THINK THERE IS A MIX BETWEEN 7 AND 8 THOUSAND AT THIS
TIME...STILL LOOKING FOR IT TO COME DOWN ANOTHER 500-1000 FEET.
IMPACT IS VERY LIMITED THOUGH...EVEN ON THE HIGHER PASSES THE
ROADS WERE WET IN BETWEEN THE PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW...SO NOT TOO
WORRIED ABOUT MONUMENT...MOUNT VERNON CANYON...ETC FOR THE
MORNING. JUST WET AND MAYBE SOME VISIBILITY ISSUES FROM THE
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO AS AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO WRAPS MOISTURE AROUND
OVER THE STATE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
KEEPS UPSLOPE FLOW GOING. IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED OVER THE PLAINS BOTH SINCE LAST NIGHT AS WELL AS TODAY.
AREAS OVER SOUTHEASTERN WELD...MORGAN...AND EASTERN ARAPAHOE AND
ADAMS COUNTIES HAD UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. TODAY HAS SEEN AROUND AN INCH ALREADY FALLING OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN DENVER SUBURBS. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FUNNELED
INTO PARK COUNTY WHERE IT UPSLOPED AGAINST THE MOSQUITO
RANGE...SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR WERE OBSERVED
TODAY. OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH AND A BIT QUICKER. BELIEVE WE HAVE SEEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
SNOW FALL RATES THIS AFTERNOON.

UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT WEAKEN IN STRENGTH.
EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW TO CONTINUE WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING FROM
THE CURRENT 8500 FEET DOWN TO NEAR 7500 FEET. THIS WILL ALLOW A
RAIN AND SNOW MIX DOWN AS FAR AS 6500 FEET. THIS MAY ALLOW THE
PALMER DIVIDE TO ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW. AN ADDITIONAL
2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TONIGHT OVER THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE AS WELL AS SOUTH PARK. ACROSS THE
PLAINS...RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHTER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR WHERE AS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE MORE SPOTTY.

AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY MONDAY...RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING...AND LIKELY BE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
WARMING...BUT ONLY LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S. SNOW LEVELS WILL
GROW FROM 7500 FT IN THE MORNING TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONLY ANOTHER TRACE TO 2 INCHES TOMORROW MORNING
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS THE WINTER STORM WARNING COMES TO AN END
BY NOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END IN AND NEAR THE FRONT
RANGE I-25 CORRIDOR MONDAY EVENING AS THE AIRMASS DRIES AND
STABILIZES. STILL CANT RULE A FEW SHOWERS HOLDING ON THE MOUNTAIN
TOPS OVERNIGHT BUT OVERALL DRYING SHOULD OCCUR. THERE IS SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SO DONT THINK SKIES WILL TOTALLY CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN BORDER AREA LATE IN
THE NIGHT. AS LONG AS SKIES DONT CLEAR SUFFICIENTLY...TEMPS SHOULD
HOLD ABOVE FREEZING AND LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL WATCH THIS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN SHOULD STILL SEE A
COUPLE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CENTER ITSELF ACROSS THE
STATE WITH WARMER WEATHER AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. DONT SEE
ANY RISK OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH THE HEART OF THE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. THERE SHOULD BE A WEAK WAVE OR TWO BRUSHING
THE AREA TO THE NORTH. THAT WOULD PUSH A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH ONLY SLIGHT COOLING. MOISTURE WOULD INCREASE AT
THE SAME TIME SO THE IDEA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE DAY
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 936 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE 200 FEET AND 1/2 MILE. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FROM EAST
TO WEST IN THE MORNING...REACHING THE DENVER AREA BETWEEN 14Z AND
17Z. STILL EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ033-034-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD


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